Journal articles
Gijsbrechts J, Boute R, Disney S, Van Mieghem J (In Press). Volume Flexibility at Responsive Suppliers in Reshoring Decisions: Analysis of a Dual Sourcing Inventory Model.
Production and Operations ManagementAbstract:
Volume Flexibility at Responsive Suppliers in Reshoring Decisions: Analysis of a Dual Sourcing Inventory Model
We investigate how volume flexibility, defined by a sourcing cost premium beyond a base capacity, at a local
responsive supplier impacts the decision to reshore supply. The buyer also has access to a remote supplier
that is cheaper with no restrictions on volume flexibility. We show that with unit lead time difference between
both suppliers, the optimal dual sourcing policy is a modified dual base-stock policy with three base-stock
levels S_2^f , S_1^f, and S_s. The replenishment orders are generated by first placing a base order from the fast
supplier of at most k units to raise the inventory position to S_1^f, if that is possible. After this base order, if
the adjusted inventory position is still below S_2^f, additional units are ordered from the fast supplier at an
overtime premium to reach S_2^f. Finally, if the adjusted inventory position is below S_s, an order from the
slow supplier is placed to bring the final inventory position to S_s. Surprisingly, in contrast to single sourcing
with limited volume flexibility, a more complex dual sourcing model often results in a “simpler” policy that
replaces demand in each period. The latter allows analytical insights into the sourcing split between the
responsive and the remote supplier. Our analysis shows how increased volume flexibility at the responsive
supplier promotes the decision to reshore operations and effectively serves as a cost benefit. It also shows
how investing in base capacity or additional volume flexibility act as strategic substitutes.
Abstract.
Li Q, Gaalman G, Disney SM (2023). On the equivalence of the proportional and damped trend order-up-to policies: an eigenvalue analysis. International Journal of Production Economics, 265
Rostami-Tabar B, Disney S (2023). On the order-up-to policy with intermittent integer demand and logically consistent forecasts.
International Journal of Production Economics,
257, 108763-108763.
Abstract:
On the order-up-to policy with intermittent integer demand and logically consistent forecasts
We measure the impact of a first-order integer auto-regressive, INAR(1), demand process on order-up-to (OUT) replenishment policy dynamics. We obtain a unique understanding of the bullwhip behaviour for slow moving integer demand. We forecast the integer demand in two ways; with a conditional mean and a conditional median. We investigate the impact of the two forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect and inventory variance generated by the OUT replenishment policy. While the conditional mean forecasts result in the tightest inventory control, they result in real-valued orders and inventory levels which is inconsistent with the integer demand. However, the conditional median forecasts are integer-valued and produce logically consistent integer order and inventory levels. The conditional median forecasts minimise the expected absolute forecasting error, but it is not possible to obtain closed form variance expressions. Numerical experiments reveal existing results remain valid with high volume correlated demand. However, for low volume demand, the impact of the integer demand on the bullwhip effect is often significant. Bullwhip with conditional median forecasts can be both lower and higher than with conditional mean forecasts; indeed it can even be higher than a known conditional mean upper bound (that is valid for all lead times under real-valued, first-order auto-regressive, AR(1), demand), depending on the auto-regressive parameter. Numerical experiments confirm the conditional mean inventory variance is a lower bound for the conditional median inventory variance.
Abstract.
Wang X, Disney S, Ponte B (2023). On the stationary stochastic response of an order-constrained inventory system.
European Journal of Operational Research,
304, 543-557.
Abstract:
On the stationary stochastic response of an order-constrained inventory system
We investigate the stochastic response of a base stock inventory system where the order quantity is either upper- or lower-constrained. This system can represent many real-world settings: forbidden returns, minimum order quantities, and capacity constraints, for example. We show that this problem can be translated into a stopping time problem where the distributions of orders and inventory can be represented by a countably infinite mixture of truncated and convoluted demand distributions. This result can be extended to the cases of arbitrary lead time and auto-correlated demand. A state space algorithm is developed to approximate the first-and second-order moments of the order quantity and inventory level. Via a numerical analysis, we investigate the performance of the approximation, as well as the operational and economic impact of the order constraint. In particular, the constraint impacts order and inventory variances via different combinations of the mixture and truncation effects. We show how tuning the constraint can improve the operational and financial performance of the inventory system by acting as a smoothing mechanism.
Abstract.
Boute R, Disney S, Gijsbrechts J, Van Mieghem J (2022). Dual Sourcing and Smoothing under Non-Stationary Demand Time Series: Re-shoring with SpeedFactories. Management Science, 68 (2), 1039-1057.
Gaalman G, Disney SM, Wang X (2022). When bullwhip increases in the lead time: an eigenvalue analysis of ARMA demand. International Journal of Production Economics, 250
Hosoda T, Disney S, Zhou L (2021). The yield rate paradox in closed-loop supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 239, 108187-108187.
Disney S, Ponte B, Wang X (2020). Exploring the nonlinear dynamics of the lost-sales order-up-to policy. International Journal of Production Research, 59 (19), 5809-5830.
Michna Z, Disney SM, Nielsen P (2020). The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect under correlated demand and moving average forecasts. Omega, 93, 102033-102033.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM, Eyers DR, Holmström J, Syntetos AA, Wang X (2019). Economies of collaboration in build-to-model operations.
Journal of Operations Management,
65, 753-773.
Abstract:
Economies of collaboration in build-to-model operations
© 2019 the Authors. Journal of Operations Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Association for Supply Chain Management Inc. The direct-from-model and tool-less manufacturing process of 3D printing (3DP) embodies a general-purpose technology, facilitating capacity sharing and outsourcing. Starting from a case study of a 3DP company (Shapeways) and a new market entrant (Panalpina), we develop dynamic practices for partial outsourcing in build-to-model manufacturing. We propose a new outsourcing scheme, bidirectional partial outsourcing (BPO), where 3D printers share capacity by alternating between the role of outsourcer and subcontractor based on need. Coupled with order book smoothing (OBS), where orders are released gradually to production, this provides 3D printers with two distinct ways to manage demand variability. By combining demand and cost field data with an analytical model, we find that BPO improves 3DP cost efficiency and delivery performance as the number of 3DP firms in the network increases. OBS is sufficient for an established 3D printer when alternatives to in-house manufacturing are few, or of limited capacity. Nevertheless, OBS comes at the cost of reduced responsiveness, whereas BPO shifts the cost and delivery performance frontier. Our analysis shows how BPO combined with OBS makes 3DP companies more resilient to downward movements in both demand and price levels.
Abstract.
Petropoulos F, Wang X, Disney SM (2019). The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data.
International Journal of Forecasting,
35(1), 251-265.
Abstract:
The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data
Forecasting competitions have been a major driver not only of improvements in forecasting methods’ performances, but also of the development of new forecasting approaches. However, despite the tremendous value and impact of these competitions, they do suffer from the limitation that performances are measured only in terms of the forecast accuracy and bias, ignoring utility metrics. Using the monthly industry series of the M3 competition, we empirically explore the inventory performances of various widely used forecasting techniques, including exponential smoothing, ARIMA models, the Theta method, and approaches based on multiple temporal aggregation. We employ a rolling simulation approach and analyse the results for the order-up-to policy under various lead times. We find that the methods that are based on combinations result in superior inventory performances, while the Naïve, Holt, and Holt-Winters methods perform poorly.
Abstract.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2018). A unified theory of the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 313-326.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2018). Avoiding the capacity cost trap: Three means of smoothing under cyclical production planning.
International Journal of Production Economics,
201, 149-162.
Abstract:
Avoiding the capacity cost trap: Three means of smoothing under cyclical production planning
Companies tend to set their master production schedule weekly, even when producing and shipping on a daily basis—the term for this is staggered deliveries. This practice is common even when there is no marginal cost of setting a new schedule. We argue that the practice is sound for companies that use the ubiquitous order-up-to (OUT) policy to control production of products with a significant capacity cost. Under these conditions, the length of the order cycle (time between schedule updates) has a damping effect on production, while a unit (daily) order cycle can cause significant capacity costs. We call this the capacity cost trap. Developing an analytical model based on industrial evidence, we derive capacity and inventory costs under the staggered OUT policy, showing that for this policy there is an optimal order cycle possibly greater than unity. To improve on this solution, we consider three approaches to smoothing: either levelling within the cycle, deferring excess production or idling to future cycles via a proportional OUT policy, or increasing the length of the cycle. By deriving exact cost expressions we compare these approaches, finding that smoothing by employing the proportional OUT policy is sufficient to avoid the capacity cost trap.
Abstract.
Chintapalli P, Disney SM, Tang CS (2017). Coordinating Supply Chains via Advance-Order Discounts, Minimum Order Quantities, and Delegations.
Production and Operations Management,
26(12), 2175-2186.
Abstract:
Coordinating Supply Chains via Advance-Order Discounts, Minimum Order Quantities, and Delegations
To avoid inventory risks, manufacturers often place rush orders with suppliers only after they receive firm orders from their customers (retailers). Rush orders are costly to both parties because the supplier incurs higher production costs. We consider a situation where the supplier's production cost is reduced if the manufacturer can place some of its order in advance. In addition to the rush order contract with a pre-established price, we examine whether the supplier should offer advance-order discounts to encourage the manufacturer to place a portion of its order in advance, even though the manufacturer incurs some inventory risk. While the advance-order discount contract is Pareto-improving, our analysis shows that the discount contract cannot coordinate the supply chain. However, if the supplier imposes a pre-specified minimum order quantity requirement as a qualifier for the manufacturer to receive the advance-order discount, then such a combined contract can coordinate the supply chain. Furthermore, the combined contract enables the supplier to attain the first-best solution. We also explore a delegation contract that either party could propose. Under this contract, the manufacturer delegates the ordering and salvaging activities to the supplier in return for a discounted price on all units procured. We find the delegation contract coordinates the supply chain and is Pareto-improving. We extend our analysis to a setting where the suppliers capacity is limited for advance production but unlimited for rush orders. Our structural results obtained for the one-supplier-one-manufacturer case continue to hold when we have two manufacturers.
Abstract.
Ponte B, Wang X, de la Fuente D, Disney SM (2017). Exploring nonlinear supply chains: the dynamics of capacity constraints.
International Journal of Production Research,
55(14), 4053-4067.
Abstract:
Exploring nonlinear supply chains: the dynamics of capacity constraints
While most supply chain models assume linearity, real production and distribution systems often operate in constrained contexts. This article aims to analyse the consequences of capacity limits in the order-up-to replenishment policy with minimum mean squared error forecasting under independently and identically distributed random demand. Our study shows that the impact of this nonlinearity is often significant and should not be ignored. In this regard, we introduce the concept of a settling capacity, which informs when our knowledge from a linear analysis is a reasonable approximation in a nonlinear context. If the available capacity is less than the settling capacity, the nonlinear effects can have a significant impact. We compare the Bullwhip Effect and Fill Rate in constrained contexts to well-established results for linear supply chains. We reveal the capacity limit acts as a production smoothing mechanism, at the expense of increasing inventory variability. We proceed to analyse the economic consequences of the capacity constraint and show that it can actually reduce costs. We provide an approximate solution for determining the optimal capacity depending on the demand, the unit costs and the lead time.
Abstract.
Syntetos AA, Boylan JE, Disney SM (2017). Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(sup1), S149-S160.
Wang X, Disney SM (2017). Mitigating variance amplification under stochastic lead-time: the proportional control approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 256(1), 151-162.
Li Q, Disney SM (2017). Revisiting rescheduling: MRP nervousness and the bullwhip effect.
International Journal of Production Research,
55(7), 1992-2012.
Abstract:
Revisiting rescheduling: MRP nervousness and the bullwhip effect
We study the material requirements planning (MRP) system nervousness problem from a dynamic, stochastic and economic perspective in a two-echelon supply chain under first-order auto-regressive demand. MRP nervousness is an effect where the future order forecasts, given to suppliers so that they may plan production and organise their affairs, exhibits extreme period-to-period variability. We develop a measure of nervousness that weights future forecast errors geometrically over time. Near-term forecast errors are weighted higher than distant forecast errors. Focusing on replenishment policies for high volume items, we investigate two methods of generating order call-offs and two methods of creating order forecasts. For order call-offs, we consider the traditional order-up-to (OUT) policy and the proportional OUT policy (POUT). For order forecasts, we study both minimum mean square error (MMSE) forecasts of the demand process and MMSE forecasts coupled with a procedure that accounts for the known future influence of the POUT policy. We show that when retailers use the POUT policy and account for its predictable future behaviour, they can reduce the bullwhip effect, supply chain inventory costs and the manufacturer’s MRP nervousness.
Abstract.
Zhou L, Naim MM, Disney SM (2017). The impact of product returns and remanufacturing uncertainties on the dynamic performance of a multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain.
International Journal of Production Economics,
183, 487-502.
Abstract:
The impact of product returns and remanufacturing uncertainties on the dynamic performance of a multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain
We investigate a three-echelon manufacturing and remanufacturing closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) constituting of a retailer, a manufacturer and a supplier. Each echelon, apart from its usual operations in the forward SC (FSC), has its own reverse logistics (RL) operations. We assume that RL information is transparent to the FSC, and the same replenishment policies are used throughout the supply chain. We focus on the impact on dynamic performance of uncertainties in the return yield, RL lead time and the product consumption lead time. Two outcomes are studied: order rate and serviceable inventory. The results suggest that higher return yield improves dynamic performance in terms of overshoot and risk of stock-out with a unit step response as input. However, when the return yield reaches a certain level, the classic bullwhip propagation normally associated with the FSC does not always hold. The longer remanufacturing and product consumption lead times result in a higher overshoot and a longer time to recover inventory, as well as more oscillation in the step response at the upstream echelons. We also study bullwhip and inventory variance when demand is a random variable. Our analysis suggests that higher return yield contributes to reduced bullwhip and inventory variance at the echelon level but for the CLSC as a whole the level of bullwhip may decrease as well as increase as it propagates along the supply chain. The reason for such behaviour is due to the interaction of the various model parameters and should be the subject of further analytical research. Furthermore, by studying the three-echelon CLSC, we produce a general equation for eliminating inventory offsets in an n-echelon CLSC. This is helpful to managers who wish to maintain inventory service levels in multi-echelon CLSCs.
Abstract.
Disney SM, Maltz A, Wang X, Warburton RDH (2016). Inventory management for stochastic lead times with order crossovers. European Journal of Operational Research, 248(2), 473-486.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2016). Inventory performance under staggered deliveries and autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 1082-1091.
Disney SM (2016). Revisiting activity sampling: a fresh look at binomial proportion confidence intervals.
European Journal of Industrial Engineering,
10(6), 724-759.
Abstract:
Revisiting activity sampling: a fresh look at binomial proportion confidence intervals
The Wald interval is typically used to assign confidence to the accuracy of activity sampling studies. It is known the performance of the Wald interval is poor, especially when the observed probability is near zero or one. The suitability of the Wald interval for activity sampling is not often discussed in the operations management literature; if it is, this is usually followed by inappropriate and incorrect advice. Herein, a range of alternative binominal confidence intervals for activity sampling is reviewed. A number of selection criteria are considered including achievement of the target nominal coverage probability, size of the interval, and ease of use and presentation. It is recommended that the Clopper-Pearson interval is used for activity sampling. A table of confidence intervals and sample sizes that is specifically designed to be used within a new activity sampling procedure based on the Clopper-Pearson interval is developed. Finally, pedagogical issues are considered.
Abstract.
Lun YHV, Quaddus M, Naim M, Disney S (2016). Special issue on "innovative service and manufacturing design". International Journal of Production Economics, 171, 163-164.
Wang X, Disney SM (2016). The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions. European Journal of Operational Research, 250(3), 691-701.
Disney SM, Gaalman GJC, Hedenstierna CPT, Hosoda T (2015). Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand.
International Journal of Production Economics,
170, 501-512.
Abstract:
Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand
We investigate the inventory service metric known as the fill rate - the proportion of demand that is immediately fulfilled from inventory. The task of finding analytical solutions for general cases is complicated by a range of factors including; correlation in demand, double counting of backlogs, and proper treatment of negative demand. In the literature, two approximate approaches are often proposed. Our contribution is to present a new fill rate measure for normally distributed, auto-correlated, and possibly negative demand. We treat negative demand as returns. Our approach also accounts for accumulated backlogs. The problem reduces to identifying the minimum of correlated normally distributed bivariate random variables. There exists an exact solution, but it has no closed form. However, the solution is amenable to numerical techniques, and we present a custom Microsoft Excel function for practical use. Numerical investigations reveal that the new fill rate is more robust than previous measures. Existing fill rate measures are likely to cause excessive inventory investment, especially when fill rate targets are modest, a strongly positive or negative autocorrelation in demand is present, or negative demands exist. Our fill rate calculation ensures that the target fill rate is achieved without excessive inventory investments.
Abstract.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Williams SJ, Nussey I, Grubbstrom RW (2015). In Memoriam: Professor Denis R. Towill 1933-2015.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION ECONOMICS,
170, III-V.
Author URL.
Piboonrungroj P, Disney SM (2015). Supply chain collaboration in tourism: a transaction cost economics analysis.
International Journal of Supply Chain Management,
4(3), 25-31.
Abstract:
Supply chain collaboration in tourism: a transaction cost economics analysis
This paper explores inter-firm collaboration in a tourism supply chain via transaction cost economics using a single case-study method. We focus on supply chain collaboration between a hotel and its food and beverage suppliers. The transaction costs were found to consist of the search cost and cost of quality checking. Search cost exists due to bounded rationality of the firm. This is influenced by asymmetric information. The quality assurance cost is incurred because the firm perceives that its suppliers may behave opportunistically. We reveal that trust could reduce transaction cost of the tourist operators. The main contribution of this paper is to explain phenomenon in the supply chain collaboration through the lens of transaction costs economics.
Abstract.
Hosoda T, Disney SM, Gavirneni S (2015). The impact of information sharing, random yield, correlation, and lead times in closed loop supply chains.
European Journal of Operational Research,
246(3), 827-836.
Abstract:
The impact of information sharing, random yield, correlation, and lead times in closed loop supply chains
We investigate the impact of advance notice of product returns on the performance of a decentralised closed loop supply chain. The market demands and the product returns are stochastic and are correlated with each other. The returned products are converted into "as-good-as-new" products and used, together with new products, to satisfy the market demand. The remanufacturing process takes time and is subject to a random yield. We investigate the benefit of the manufacturer obtaining advance notice of product returns from the remanufacturer. We demonstrate that lead times, random yields and the parameters describing the returns play a significant role in the benefit of the advance notice scheme. Our mathematical results offer insights into the benefits of lead time reduction and the adoption of information sharing schemes.
Abstract.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Houdt BV (2014). Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 232(1), 52-63.
Wang X, Disney SM, Wang J (2014). Exploring the oscillatory dynamics of a forbidden returns inventory system. International Journal of Production Economics, 147, 3-12.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH, Zhong QC (2013). Net present value analysis of the economic production quantity. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 24(4), 423-435.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2012). A delayed demand supply chain: Incentives for upstream players. Omega, 40(4), 478-487.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH (2012). On the Lambert W function: Economic Order Quantity applications and pedagogical considerations. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(2), 756-764.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2012). On the replenishment policy when the market demand information is lagged. International Journal of Production Economics, 135(1), 458-467.
Disney SM, Bogataj M, Tang O (2012). Sixteenth international working seminar on production economics, Innsbruck, 2010. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(2), 557-558.
Wang X, Disney SM, Wang J (2012). Stability analysis of constrained inventory systems with transportation delay. European Journal of Operational Research, 223(1), 86-95.
Childerhouse P, Deakins E, Böhme T, Towill DR, Disney SM, Banomyong R (2011). Supply chain integration: an international comparison of maturity.
Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics,
23(4), 531-552.
Abstract:
Supply chain integration: an international comparison of maturity
Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to examine the uptake of supply chain integration (SCI) principles internationally and the resultant integration maturity. Design/methodology/approach – a rigorous supply chain diagnostics methodology called the Quick Scan is used to assess the integration maturity of 72 value streams located in New Zealand, Thailand and the UK. Findings – the majority of the organisations studied are struggling to turn the SCI concept into reality. Supply chains on average are poorly integrated. However, there exist a handful of exemplar cases that provide guidance; levels of integration maturity appear not to differ internationally. Research limitations/implications – Only three nations are compared, hence the sample is not fully representative of all countries and industries. There is a significant gap between supply chain rhetoric and practice; clear guidance on how to enable effective integration is required. National settings do not appear to affect the extent of application of supply chain management concepts. Practical implications – SCI is a very difficult undertaking. Indifferent practice is the norm. If organisations can attain even the middle ground of internal integration they will outperform many of their competitors. Originality/value – the paper presents an international benchmark of SCI maturity involving three triangulated measures of supply chain performance. © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Abstract.
Zhou L, Disney S, Towill DR (2010). A pragmatic approach to the design of bullwhip controllers. International Journal of Production Economics, 128(2), 556-568.
Ketokivi M, Heikkilä J (2010). A strategic management system for manufacturing: linking action to performance. Production Planning & Control, 14(6), 487-486.
Cannella S, Ciancimino E, Framinan JM, Disney SM (2010). The four supply chain archetypes.
Universia Business Review,
26, 134-149.
Abstract:
The four supply chain archetypes
During the XX century supply chains have evolved in the face of new global market challenges to remove congenital inefficiencies such as the bullwhip effect. This paper illustrates four supply chain archetypes, from the classical traditional structure to the innovative synchronised configuration. The four archetypes are presented using a water tank analogy. We show how some key features of the business environment can deter the implementation of next-generation supply chain, despite their evident benefits. Our framework can be used as a support tool by firms to comprehend difficulties caused by the interaction with supply partners and to discover improvement opportunities achieved with innovative IT-enabled cooperation mechanisms.
Abstract.
Disney SM, Hosoda T (2009). Altruistic behaviour in a two-echelon supply chain with unmatched proportional feedback controllers.
International Journal of Intelligent Systems Technologies and Applications,
6(3-4), 269-286.
Abstract:
Altruistic behaviour in a two-echelon supply chain with unmatched proportional feedback controllers
We study a two-echelon supply chain with first order autoregressive demand and unit replenishment lead-times. Each echelon of the supply chain uses conditional expectation to generate Minimum Mean Squared Error forecasts. Both echelons use these forecasts inside the ‘Order-Up-To’ policy to generate replenishment orders. We investigate three different scenarios. The first is when each echelon aims to minimise their own local inventory holding and backlog costs. The second scenario is concerned with an altruistic retailer who is willing and able to sacrifice some of his own performance for the benefit of the total supply chain. The retailer does this by smoothing the demand placed on the manufacturer by using a matched proportional controller in the inventory and Work-In-Progress feedback loops. The third scenario is concerned with an altruistic retailer with two, unmatched controllers. The matched controller case outperforms the traditional case by 14.1%; the unmatched controller case outperforms the matched controller case by 4.9%. © 2009 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Abstract.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2009). Designing replenishment rules in a two-echelon supply chain with a flexible or an inflexible capacity strategy. International Journal of Production Economics, 119(1), 187-198.
Disney S (2009). Editorial for the special issue: papers from the 19th international conference on production research. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 12(4), 231-232.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2009). Impact of market demand mis-specification on a two-level supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 121(2), 739-751.
HOSODA T, DISNEY SM (2009). On a Myth in Supply Chain Management(Industrial Management). 日本経営工学会論文誌, 59(6), 431-436.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2009). On a myth in supply chain management.
Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association,
59(6), 431-436.
Abstract:
On a myth in supply chain management
By using a stochastic supply chain modelling technique this research addresses the myth that more accurate forecast always yields better supply chain performance. A serially linked two-level supply chain model is established to quantify the impact of forecast accuracy on the inventory and production cost in the supply chain. It is suggested that accurate forecasts do not always bring benefit to the supply chain. Instead, for most cases, the total supply chian cost will go up, Due to a cost increase at the second level, Even though the cost at the first level will decrease.
Abstract.
Gaalman G, Disney SM (2009). On bullwhip in a family of order-up-to policies with ARMA(2,2) demand and arbitrary lead-times. International Journal of Production Economics, 121(2), 454-463.
Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2009). The effects of schedule volatility on supply chain performance. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 12(4), 313-328.
Potter A, Towill D, Böhme T, Disney S (2009). The influence of multi-product production strategy on factory induced bullwhip. International Journal of Production Research, 47(20), 5739-5759.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2008). A win–win solution for the bullwhip problem. Production Planning & Control, 19(7), 702-711.
Hosoda T, Naim MM, Disney SM, Potter A (2008). Is there a benefit to sharing market sales information? Linking theory and practice. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 54(2), 315-326.
Towill DR, Disney SM (2008). Managing Bullwhip-induced risks in supply chains. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 10(3), 238-238.
Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2008). On the impact of order volatility in the European automotive sector. International Journal of Production Economics, 114(1), 2-13.
Disney SM (2008). Supply chain aperiodicity, bullwhip and stability analysis with Jury's inners. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 19(2), 101-116.
III AL, Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR, McCormack K (2008). The impact of process maturity and uncertainty on supply chain performance: an empirical study. International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 15(1), 12-12.
Disney SM, Lambrecht M, Towill DR, Van de Velde W (2008). The value of coordination in a two-echelon supply chain. IIE Transactions, 40(3), 341-355.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2007). An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research, 178(1), 121-142.
Disney SM, Farasyn I, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR, Van De Velde W (2007). Controlling bullwhip and inventory variability with the golden smoothing rule.
European Journal of Industrial Engineering,
1(3), 241-265.
Abstract:
Controlling bullwhip and inventory variability with the golden smoothing rule
A major cause of supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect. Supply chain managers experience this variance amplification in both inventory levels and replenishment orders. In this paper, we analyse a major cause of the bullwhip effect, namely the classical Order-Up-To (OUT) policy and suggest a remedy (a smoothing replenishment rule). In general, dampening variability in orders may have a negative impact on customer service due to increase in inventory variance. We quantify the variance of the Net Stock (NS) levels and compute the required safety stock as a function of the smoothing required. The contribution of this paper is the analysis of the tradeoff between bullwhip and inventory variance resulting in a ‘golden smoothing rule’. The golden smoothing rule refers to the fact that the values of two proportional feedback controllers are set equal to the Golden Ratio. © 2007 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
Abstract.
Disney. SM, Grubbström RW (2007). Economic consequences of a production and inventory control policy. International Journal of Production Research, 42(17), 3419-3431.
Warburton RDH, Disney SM (2007). Order and inventory variance amplification: the equivalence of discrete and continuous time analyses. International Journal of Production Economics, 110(1-2), 128-137.
Towill DR, Zhou L, Disney SM (2007). Reducing the bullwhip effect: Looking through the appropriate lens. International Journal of Production Economics, 108(1-2), 444-453.
Childerhouse. P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2007). Tailored toolkit to enable seamless supply chains. International Journal of Production Research, 42(17), 3627-3646.
Warburton RDH, Disney SM, Towill DR, Hodgson JPE (2007). Technical Note: Further insights into ‘the stability of supply chains’. International Journal of Production Research, 42(3), 639-648.
Chen YF, Disney SM (2007). The myopic Order-Up-To policy with a proportional feedback controller. International Journal of Production Research, 45(2), 351-368.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). A methodology for benchmarking replenishment‐induced bullwhip.
Supply Chain Management: an International Journal,
11(2), 160-168.
Abstract:
A methodology for benchmarking replenishment‐induced bullwhip
PurposeThe aim of this article is to provide a concise methodology for the design of a widely used class of decision supply systems (DSS) which will enable precise control of bullwhip variance and inventory variance induced within a supply chain echelon.Design/methodology/approachThe study exploits recent research that derived analytical formulae for calculating these performance metrics germane to the delivery process when the demand is randomly varying about a constant mean value. These formulae have been verified via extensive simulation‐based cross‐checks.FindingsThe design methodology focuses on the specification of bullwhip variance as an input. The output is to identify combinations of parameter settings to meet this target. Hence these parameters may be mapped to provide a visual display of competing designs with their associated inventory variance.Research limitations/implicationsAlthough the analytical solutions apply only to the case where the pipeline error and inventory error correction terms are equal, this is not a severe limitation. Both theoretical studies of dynamic response and industrial experience support this feedback gain equally as enabling good practice.Practical implicationsDesign of this particular DSS to control bullwhip is now greatly simplified, and guaranteed via extensive verification tests. The formulae are equally sound as a means of establishing system robustness.Originality/valueThe methodology is unique in enabling transparency of both bullwhip variance and inventory variance computation. Not only are system design time saved and normal performance guaranteed, but considerable management insight is generated thereby.
Abstract.
Potter A, Disney SM (2006). Bullwhip and batching: an exploration. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 408-418.
Lalwani CS, Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). Controllable, observable and stable state space representations of a generalized order-up-to policy. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 172-184.
Hayya JC, Kim JG, Disney SM, Harrison TP, Chatfield D (2006). Estimation in supply chain inventory management. International Journal of Production Research, 44(7), 1313-1330.
Lalwani CS, Disney SM, Naim MM (2006). On assessing the sensitivity to uncertainty in distribution network design.
International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,
36(1), 5-21.
Abstract:
On assessing the sensitivity to uncertainty in distribution network design
PurposeThe design of distribution networks is prone to risks due to the uncertainties associated with factors that change over time. The purpose of this paper is to present a new method to identify those factors that the structure of a distribution network is most sensitive to.Design/methodology/approachA new method presented in this paper combines simulation and the Taguchi technique to allow a wide range of factor uncertainties to be evaluated without excessive computation time and effort. The simulation model developed is based on real world data of a European after‐sales business in the automotive industry.FindingsThe optimum design is most at risk due to the uncertainties associated with stock holding costs and delivery frequencies rather than customer volume changes and transport tariffs. This was found to be counterintuitive by the business managers and fore‐warned them of the likely future risks.Practical implicationsThe analysis indicates that when developing the network a careful consideration has to be given to reliably estimating the inventory holding costs and the mechanism for determining the capital holding charge. The model is sensitive to these variables and hence a company is prone to higher risk of designing the wrong network if these variables are incorrectly estimated. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that higher customer expectations on delivery frequency have an impact on total logistics costs and therefore, companies should consider charging customers different rates for different levels of customer service.Originality/valueA useful generic method has been presented in this paper for investigating the sensitivity of a scenario. This novel approach combines the use of simulation, brainstorming, Taguchi technique and ANOVA with distribution design modelling.
Abstract.
Geary S, Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). On bullwhip in supply chains—historical review, present practice and expected future impact. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 2-18.
Disney SM, Towill DR, Warburton RDH (2006). On the equivalence of control theoretic, differential, and difference equation approaches to modeling supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 194-208.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006). On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting. Omega, 34(4), 344-358.
Gaalman G, Disney SM (2006). State space investigation of the bullwhip problem with ARMA(1,1) demand processes. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 327-339.
Disney SM, Farasyn I, Lambrecht M, Towill DR, de Velde WV (2006). Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon. European Journal of Operational Research, 173(1), 151-172.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006). The governing dynamics of supply chains: the impact of altruistic behaviour. Automatica, 42(8), 1301-1309.
Zhou L, Xu SJ, Disney SM (2005). Analysis and optimization of inventory variance and bullwhip in a manufacturing/remanufacturing system.
Shanghai Jiaotong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,
39(10), 1587-1591.
Abstract:
Analysis and optimization of inventory variance and bullwhip in a manufacturing/remanufacturing system
Quantitative analysis of closed-loop supply chains is often based on a specified cost function; dynamical performance of the system is rarely considered. This paper adopted a control theory approach to build a simple dynamic model of a hybrid manufacturing/remanufacturing system. It highlights the effect of remanufacturing (and return) lead-time and the return rate on the inventory variance and bull whip produced by the ordering policy. The results show that a larger return rate leads to less bullwhip and less inventory variance. Thus returns can be used to improve dynamic performance by absorbing some of the demand fluctuations. Longer remanufacturing (and return) lead-times have less impact on reducing inventory variance and bullwhip than shorter lead-times. It is concluded that within our specified system the inventory variance and bullwhip is always less in supply chain with returns than that without returns.
Abstract.
Zhou L, Disney SM (2005). Bullwhip and inventory variance in a closed loop supply chain. OR Spectrum, 28(1), 127-149.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2005). Eliminating drift in inventory and order based production control systems. International Journal of Production Economics, 93-94, 331-344.
Disney SM, Lambrecht MR (2005). On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting, and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains. Foundations and Trends® in Technology, Information and Operations Management, 2(1), 1-80.
Holweg M, Disney S, Holmström J, Småros J (2005). Supply Chain Collaboration:. European Management Journal, 23(2), 170-181.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Potter A (2004). Assessing the impact of e-business on supply chain dynamics. International Journal of Production Economics, 89(2), 109-118.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2004). The impact of information enrichment on the Bullwhip effect in supply chains: a control engineering perspective. European Journal of Operational Research, 153(3), 727-750.
Holweg M, Disney SM, Hines P, Naim MM (2004). Towards responsive vehicle supply: a simulation‐based investigation into automotive scheduling systems.
Journal of Operations Management,
23(5), 507-530.
Abstract:
Towards responsive vehicle supply: a simulation‐based investigation into automotive scheduling systems
AbstractVehicle supply has traditionally been based on forecast‐driven production, and a large fraction of cars has been sold from stock—a practice which incurs considerable cost in terms of stock holding and sales incentives. Derived from successes in other industries, the benefits of responsive supply systems capable of providing customized vehicles in short lead‐times have been pointed out. While the theoretical discussion of such ‘build‐to‐order’ (BTO) strategies is well advanced, the dynamic feasibility of implementing these concepts is far from understood. Using a simulation of a multi‐tier supply chain‐system, this paper investigates the impact of altering key aspects of the scheduling activities with the objective of determining the scope for potential improvements in responsiveness of the supply chain. The simulation results show that current vehicle supply systems are not capable of supporting BTO due to insufficient feedback between supply and demand, as well as due to the strong reliance on forecasting in the scheduling process. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations on how to improve current scheduling systems towards increasing the content of vehicles built to customer order.
Abstract.
Disney SM, Towill DR, van de Velde W (2004). Variance amplification and the golden ratio in production and inventory control. International Journal of Production Economics, 90(3), 295-309.
Towill DR, Lambrecht MR, Disney SM, Dejonckheere J (2003). Explicit filters and supply chain design. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 9(2), 73-81.
Maull RS, Maull W, Tranfield D (2003). Factors characterising the maturity of BPR programmes. International Journal of Operations & Production Management, 23(6), 596-624.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2003). Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: a control theoretic approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 147(3), 567-590.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy. Omega, 31(3), 157-167.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht M, Towill DR (2003). The dynamics of aggregate planning.
Production Planning and Control,
14(6), 497-516.
Abstract:
The dynamics of aggregate planning
Recent software developments in system modelling via transfer function analysis now enables a much broader understanding of the dynamics of aggregate planning to be gained. In particular it opens up the possibility of exploiting filter theory as a focal point during algorithm design. This is particularly attractive in view of the fact that we have established, via transfer function models, that there is common- ality between HMMS and the order-up-to replenishment rules used extensively within both local and global supply chains. Filter theory allows us to relate these dynamics directly to present-day production planning strategy as observed in much industrial practice. It covers the spectrum of production strategies recently identified as preferred industrial practice. These strategies range from ‘level scheduling’ (i.e. lean produc¬tion) right through to ‘pure chase’ (i.e. agile manufacture) with appropriate simple algorithmic control support via APIOBPCS software. © 2003, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
Abstract.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). The effect of vendor managed inventory (VMI) dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 85(2), 199-215.
Disney SM, Potter AT, Gardner BM (2003). The impact of vendor managed inventory on transport operations. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 39(5), 363-380.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). Vendor-managed inventory and bullwhip reduction in a two-level supply chain.
International Journal of Operations and Production Management,
23(5-6), 625-651.
Abstract:
Vendor-managed inventory and bullwhip reduction in a two-level supply chain
Compares the bullwhip properties of a vendor managed inventory (VMI) supply chain with those of a traditional "serially-linked" supply chain. The emphasis of this investigation is the comparative impact the two structures have on the "bullwhip effect" generated. Particular attention is paid to the manufacturer's production ordering activities as demonstrated using a simulation model based on difference equations. Documents and considers each of the four important sources of the bullwhip effect in turn. The analysis shows that with VMI implementation two sources of the bullwhip effect may be completely eliminated, i.e. rationing and gaming or the Houlihan effect, and the order batching effect or the Burbidge effect. VMI is also significantly better at responding to rogue changes in demand due to the promotion effect or to price induced variations. However, the effect of VMI on demand signal processing induced bullwhip or the Forrester effect is less clear cut. Concludes that on balance VMI offers a significant opportunity to reduce the bullwhip effect in real-world supply chains.
Abstract.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A discrete transfer function model to determine the dynamic stability of a vendor managed inventory supply chain. International Journal of Production Research, 40(1), 179-204.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A procedure for the optimization of the dynamic response of a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 43(1-2), 27-58.
Naim MM, Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A supply chain diagnostic methodology: determining the vector of change. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 43(1-2), 135-157.
Towill DR, Childerhouse P, Disney SM (2002). Integrating the automotive supply chain: Where are we now?.
International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,
32(2), 79-95.
Abstract:
Integrating the automotive supply chain: Where are we now?
Real world supply chains differ not only in their current standard of performance, but also in the most effective actions required to move each towards world class supply. A generic approach for the identification of the appropriate re-engineering programmes based on the uncertainty circle principle is presented. A total of 20 European automotive supply chains have been analysed via a “quick scan” audit procedure. The output is a clear portrayal of the present “health status” of those supply chains. Some 10 per cent of these are performing at the present day level of “best practice”, with a further 20 per cent within sight of this goal. Specific re-engineering requirements are identified for the remaining 70 per cent dependent on present maturity levels. © 2002, MCB UP Limited
Abstract.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2002). Transfer function analysis of forecasting induced bullwhip in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 78(2), 133-144.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Towill DR (2000). Genetic algorithm optimisation of a class of inventory control systems. International Journal of Production Economics, 68(3), 259-278.
Towill DR, Childerhouse P, Disney SM (2000). Speeding up the progress curve towards effective supply chain management.
Supply Chain Management: an International Journal,
5(3), 122-130.
Abstract:
Speeding up the progress curve towards effective supply chain management
Introduces a supply chain “health check” procedure successfully applied in the European automotive sector and presents the results for the analysis of 20 trans‐European value streams covering a wide range of first and second tier suppliers. The health check procedure is activated via a quick scan methodology (QSM) requiring execution by a multi‐disciplinary team working on‐site. The degree of integration within the value chain is estimated by the QS team, using the uncertainty circle concept which apportions observed uncertainties in the product delivery process (PDP) according to source. In our experience the four major contributors are: the demand side; supply side; value added process side; and systems controls. The results clearly demonstrate a well‐trodden and hence proven route for value stream performance improvement. They also identify value chain exemplars and many areas of best practice, but most importantly they provide a list of actions focused on improving the performance of individual value streams. Properly applied, re‐engineering programmes based on these trigger points will speed up the progress curve towards effective supply chain management.
Abstract.
Hong-Minh SM, Disney SM, Naim MM (2000). The dynamics of emergency transhipment supply chains.
International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management,
30(9), 788-815.
Abstract:
The dynamics of emergency transhipment supply chains
Considers the dynamical effect of lateral emergency transhipments within a supply chain. It tests various different strategies for improving customer service via the MIT Beer Game. Four distinct strategies are considered. "Electronic point of sales (EPOS)", where marketplace information is forwarded to all players throughout the supply chain; "Excel", where the stock levels in all echelons are controlled by the factory; "Emergency transhipments", where an express transportation route bypassing an echelon in the supply chain is permitted; "Eliminate", where an echelon is removed from the supply chain. The Beer Game strategies are also studied via a simulation exercise. Results show that the Excel strategy is flawed, whereas the EPOS strategy has a strong impact on inventory cost, Emergency transhipments has a strong impact on customer service level and Eliminate results in less stock for an improved customer service level. Combinations of the three viable strategies are also tested. This paper concludes that the three strategies can be integrated to significantly improve supply chain performance. © MCB University Press.
Abstract.
Hammant J, Disney SM, Childerhouse P, Naim MM (1999). Modelling the consequences of a strategic supply chain initiative of an automotive aftermarket operation.
International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management,
29(9), 535-550.
Abstract:
Modelling the consequences of a strategic supply chain initiative of an automotive aftermarket operation
Describes the use of a decision support system (DSS) in part of a strategic supply chain initiative of an international automotive aftermarket organisation undertaken in 1996-97. The strategic initiative consisted of four distinct stages; a review of the current state, definition of the future vision, development of the operational blueprint and its implementation. A simulation based decision support system was developed by the academic team to aid the decision making in the definition of the future vision. The paper documents, models and simulates the development of supply chain structures in the automotive aftermarket sector in relation to the historical, present and predicted future market trends. The characteristics of the supply chain in terms of number of players, consolidation, market and customer requirements are given. Suitable measures of performance (MOPs) are defined and classified as either market qualifiers or order winners. Aggregate MOPs include quality, service time, service level and total logistics costs. Sample simulation results from the DSS are outlined. © 1999, MCB UP Limited
Abstract.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Towill DR (1997). Dynamic simulation modelling for lean logistics. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 27(3-4), 174-196.