Adrian Baricuatro

Adrian Baricuatro is a PhD researcher interested in how climate change interacts with systemic risk and financial stability. His research engages with the "green swan" idea:  the concern that climate-related shocks, disorderly low-carbon transitions, and geopolitical instability could combine to produce disruptions that conventional risk frameworks are poorly equipped to anticipate. A starting point for his work is that many standard models assume stationarity and thin-tailed distributions, which may understate how likely and how severe such events can be. He is exploring how extreme losses might instead be understood through fat-tailed, non-stationary hazard distributions, and how these risks could propagate through interconnected economic and financial networks.

In the early stages of his doctoral research, Adrian is working with integrated assessment models and empirical analysis of heavy-tailed shock and conflict data. He hopes this work will contribute to a clearer understanding of how transition risks, geopolitical risks, and deep uncertainty bear on financial stability, and of the conditions under which resilience measures reduce or unintentionally increase exposure to rare but costly events.