Publications by year
2013
Cortinhas C, Stephenson J (2013). Creative uses of in-class technology. In (Ed) Handbook for Economics Lecturers, Economics Network.
2012
Cortinhas C, Black K (2012). Statistics for Business and Economics. Chichester, John Wiley & Sons.
2009
CORTINHAS C (2009). EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN ASEAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE REGION.
The Singapore Economic Review,
54(04), 657-687.
Abstract:
EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN ASEAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE REGION
This paper investigates, for the first time, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN. For this purpose, a three-variable-recursive VAR model was applied that uses the Choleski decomposition method along the distribution chain of pricing, using data for the period 1968 to 2001.The results show that a strong case for entering a currency union can be made for the cases of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, as in these countries there appears to be the case of exchange rate disconnect. A case for common currency can also be made for Indonesia but for entirely different reasons. For this country, an independent monetary policy is a clear source of shock to the economy and therefore a currency union would tend to eliminate them. Finally, a weaker case for a common currency can be made for the Philippines as evidence of some exchange rate pass-through to inflation was found but not to import prices.
Abstract.
CORTINHAS CARLOS (2009). EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN ASEAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE REGION.
The Singapore Economic Review,
54(04), 657-687.
Abstract:
EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN ASEAN: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROSPECTS OF MONETARY INTEGRATION IN THE REGION
This paper investigates, for the first time, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN. For this purpose, a three-variable-recursive VAR model was applied that uses the Choleski decomposition method along the distribution chain of pricing, using data for the period 1968 to 2001.The results show that a strong case for entering a currency union can be made for the cases of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, as in these countries there appears to be the case of exchange rate disconnect. A case for common currency can also be made for Indonesia but for entirely different reasons. For this country, an independent monetary policy is a clear source of shock to the economy and therefore a currency union would tend to eliminate them. Finally, a weaker case for a common currency can be made for the Philippines as evidence of some exchange rate pass-through to inflation was found but not to import prices.
Abstract.
Cortinhas C (2009). Exchange rate pass-through in ASEAN: Implications for the prospects of monetary integration in the region.
Singapore Economic Review,
54(4), 657-687.
Abstract:
Exchange rate pass-through in ASEAN: Implications for the prospects of monetary integration in the region
This paper investigates, for the first time, the degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in all five founding members of ASEAN. For this purpose, a three-variable-recursive VAR model was applied that uses the Choleski decomposition method along the distribution chain of pricing, using data for the period 1968 to 2001. The results show that a strong case for entering a currency union can be made for the cases of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, as in these countries there appears to be the case of exchange rate disconnect. A case for common currency can also be made for Indonesia but for entirely different reasons. For this country, an independent monetary policy is a clear source of shock to the economy and therefore a currency union would tend to eliminate them. Finally, a weaker case for a common currency can be made for the Philippines as evidence of some exchange rate pass-through to inflation was found but not to import prices. © 2009 World Scientific Publishing Company.
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Cortinhas C (2009).
Prospects for Monetary Integration in ASEAN., Vdm Verlag Dr Mueller E K.
Abstract:
Prospects for Monetary Integration in ASEAN
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2007
Cortinhas C (2007). Asymmetry of Shocks and Convergence in Selected ASEAN Countries: a Dynamic Analysis, in Koveos. In Koveos PE (Ed)
Critical issues for the 21st century global economy, Athens: Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), 25-42.
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Cortinhas C (2007). Intra-industry trade and business cycles in ASEAN.
Applied Economics,
39(7-9), 893-902.
Abstract:
Intra-industry trade and business cycles in ASEAN
A new resolve for both increased economic integration and monetary and exchange rate cooperation has started to emerge in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), especially since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. According to the optimum currency area theory, the degree of trade integration is one of the most important criteria for joining a currency union. The large increase in intra-ASEAN trade in recent years raises the question of whether the ASEAN countries are becoming better prepared to form a currency union. This article sets to test whether the recorded increase in intra-ASEAN trade is leading the ASEAN members to closer economic integration and thus to better satisfy the criteria for a common currency. Two separate models are estimated for that purpose. First, a variation of the model of Frankel and Rose (1997) was estimated for the ASEAN members. Next, a new panel data methodology was conducted. The results with our own model were very significant and robust when four of the ASEAN5 countries were considered, and showed a clear positive correlation between intra-industry trade and business cycle synchronization in ASEAN. This result has important implications for the prospects of the creation of a common currency in the region.
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