We need to talk about Kevin

SITE (Science, Innovation, Technology, and Entrepreneurship)

Speaker:Prof. Kostas Nikolopoulos, Durham University
Date: Tuesday 2 November 2021
Time: 11:30
Location: Constantine Leventis teaching room and via Microsoft teams (link via

Further details

Professor Kostas Nikolopoulos will present a brief history of forecasting and predictive analytics and through a series of cases from his research with industry will demonstrate the challenges and gains in using hierarchical – especially temporal – forecasting in practice. There will be a lot of focus on the things that remain under-researched and rarely discussed in the theory and practice of forecasting such as: • Risk • Black and grey swans • Intermittence • A holistic framework to bring all these together from a risk perspective. The first case study is looking into spatiotemporal hierarchies to support preparation and response to major earthquakes. This case study focuses on mitigating risks from rare events, the so-called Black Swans. The second one at an insurance application, while the third and fourth come from highly regulated industries in healthcare and food processing.