Abstract:
(Mis)perceiving cooperativeness.

Cooperation is crucial for the success of social interactions. Given its importance, humans should readily be able to use available cues to predict how likely others are to cooperate. Here, we review the empirical literature on how accurate such predictions are. To this end, we distinguish between three classes of cues: behavioral (including past decisions), personal (including gender, attractiveness, and group membership) and situational (including the benefits to cooperation and the ability to communicate with each other). We discuss (i) how each cue correlates with future cooperative decisions and (ii) whether people correctly anticipate each cue's predictive value. We find that people are fairly accurate in interpreting behavioral and situational cues. However, they often misperceive the value of personal cues. 

Abstract:
A review of planting principles to identify the right place for the right tree for ‘net zero plus’ woodlands: Applying a place-based natural capital framework for sustainable, efficient and equitable (SEE) decisions.

We outline the principles of the natural capital approach to decision making and apply these to the contemporary challenge of very significantly expanding woodlands as contribution to attaining net zero emissions of greenhouse gases. Drawing on the case of the UK, we argue that a single focus upon carbon storage alone is likely to overlook the other ‘net zero plus’ benefits which woodlands can deliver. A review of the literature considers the wide variety of potential benefits which woodlands can provide, together with costs such as foregone alternative land uses. We argue that decision making must consider all of these potential benefits and costs for the right locations to be planted with the right trees. The paper closes by reviewing the decision support systems necessary to incorporate this information into policy and decision making. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. 

Abstract:
Adaptive Inference in Heteroscedastic Fractional Time Series Models.

We consider estimation and inference in fractionally integrated time series models driven by shocks which can display conditional and unconditional heteroscedasticity of unknown form. Although the standard conditional sum-of-squares (CSS) estimator remains consistent and asymptotically normal in such cases, unconditional heteroscedasticity inflates its variance matrix by a scalar quantity, (Formula presented.), thereby inducing a loss in efficiency relative to the unconditionally homoscedastic case, λ = 1. We propose an adaptive version of the CSS estimator, based on nonparametric kernel-based estimation of the unconditional volatility process. We show that adaptive estimation eliminates the factor λ from the variance matrix, thereby delivering the same asymptotic efficiency as that attained by the standard CSS estimator in the unconditionally homoscedastic case and, hence, asymptotic efficiency under Gaussianity. Importantly, the asymptotic analysis is based on a novel proof strategy, which does not require consistent estimation (in the sup norm) of the volatility process. Consequently, we are able to work under a weaker set of assumptions than those employed in the extant literature. The asymptotic variance matrices of both the standard and adaptive CSS (ACSS) estimators depend on any weak parametric autocorrelation present in the fractional model and any conditional heteroscedasticity in the shocks. Consequently, asymptotically pivotal inference can be achieved through the development of confidence regions or hypothesis tests using either heteroscedasticity-robust standard errors and/or a wild bootstrap. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical applications illustrate the practical usefulness of the methods proposed. 

Abstract:
Combined carbon and health taxes outperform single-purpose information or fiscal measures in designing sustainable food policies.

The food system is a major source of both environmental and health challenges. Yet, the extent to which policy-induced changes in the patterns of food demand address these challenges remains poorly understood. Using a randomised-controlled survey of 5,912 respondents from the United Kingdom (UK), we evaluate the potential impact of carbon and/or health taxes, information and combined tax and information strategies on food purchase patterns and their resulting impact on greenhouse gas emissions and dietary health. Our results show that while information on the carbon and/or health characteristics of food is not irrelevant, it is the imposition of taxes which exerts the most substantial effects on food purchasing decisions. Furthermore, while carbon or health taxes are best at separately targeting emissions and health challenges respectively, a combined carbon and health tax policy maximises benefits both in terms of environmental and health outcomes. We show that such a combined policy could contribute to around one third of the residual emission reductions required to achieve the UK’s 2050 net zero commitments, while discouraging the purchase of unhealthy snacks, sugary drinks and alcohol and increasing the purchase of fruit and vegetables. 

Abstract:
Credit Building or Credit Crumbling? a Credit Builder Loan’s Effects on Consumer Behavior and Market Efficiency in the United States.

Abstract
. A randomized encouragement design yields null average effects of a credit builder loan (CBL) on consumer credit scores. But machine learning algorithms indicate the nulls are due to stark, offsetting treatment effects depending on baseline installment credit activity. Delinquency on preexisting loan obligations drives the negative effects, suggesting that adding a CBL overextends some consumers and generates negative externalities on other lenders. More favorably for the market, CBL take-up generates positive selection on score improvements. Simple changes to CBL practice, particularly to provider screening and credit bureau reporting, could ameliorate the negative effects for consumers and the market. 

Abstract:
Expanding the measurement of culture with a sample of two billion humans.

Culture has played a pivotal role in human evolution. Yet, the ability of social scientists to study culture is limited by the currently available measurement instruments. Scholars of culture must regularly choose between scalable but sparse survey-based methods or restricted but rich ethnographic methods. Here, we demonstrate that massive online social networks can advance the study of human culture by providing quantitative, scalable and high-resolution measurement of behaviourally revealed cultural values and preferences. We employ data across nearly 60 000 topic dimensions drawn from two billion Facebook users across 225 countries and territories. We first validate that cultural distances calculated from this measurement instrument correspond to traditional survey-based and objective measures of cross-national cultural differences. We then demonstrate that this expanded measure enables rich insight into the cultural landscape globally at previously impossible resolution. We analyse the importance of national borders in shaping culture and compare subnational divisiveness with gender divisiveness across countries. Our measure enables detailed investigation into the geopolitical stability of countries, social cleavages within small- and large-scale human groups, the integration of migrant populations and the disaffection of certain population groups from the political process, among myriad other potential future applications. 

Abstract:
Fundamental social motives measured across forty-two cultures in two waves.

AbstractHow does psychology vary across human societies? the fundamental social motives framework adopts an evolutionary approach to capture the broad range of human social goals within a taxonomy of ancestrally recurring threats and opportunities. These motives—self-protection, disease avoidance, affiliation, status, mate acquisition, mate retention, and kin care—are high in fitness relevance and everyday salience, yet understudied cross-culturally. Here, we gathered data on these motives in 42 countries (N = 15,915) in two cross-sectional waves, including 19 countries (N = 10,907) for which data were gathered in both waves. Wave 1 was collected from mid-2016 through late 2019 (32 countries, N = 8,998; 3,302 male, 5,585 female; Mage = 24.43, SD = 7.91). Wave 2 was collected from April through November 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic (29 countries, N = 6,917; 2,249 male, 4,218 female; Mage = 28.59, SD = 11.31). These data can be used to assess differences and similarities in people’s fundamental social motives both across and within cultures, at different time points, and in relation to other commonly studied cultural indicators and outcomes. 

Abstract:
On the Persistence of Mental Health Deterioration during the COVID-19 Pandemic by Sex and Ethnicity in the UK: Evidence from Understanding Society.

Abstract
. We use longitudinal data from a representative sample of the UK and compare self-reported mental health, as measured by the GHQ-12 score, at three timepoints (2017–2019, April 2020 and March 2021), for the whole sample and by sex and ethnicity. Out of the 14,382 individuals interviewed in 2017–2019 and April 2020, 10,445 were interviewed again in March 2021. The mean GHQ-12 in April 2020 is 12.37 [95% CI: 12.22, 12.52] and in March 2021 is 12.36 [95% CI: 12.21, 12.51], above that of 2017–2019: 11.13 [95% CI: 10.99, 11.26]. We do not find evidence that the level of mental health goes back to pre-pandemic levels. In terms of inequalities, while the gender gap (mean difference between women and men) in mental health deterioration among White British is closing, there is no clear evidence that the ethnic gap (mean difference between ethnic minorities and White British) among men is changing. 

Abstract:
Polarized Citizen Preferences for the Ethical Allocation of Scarce Medical Resources in 20 Countries.

Objective. When medical resources are scarce, clinicians must make difficult triage decisions. When these decisions affect public trust and morale, as was the case during the COVID-19 pandemic, experts will benefit from knowing which triage metrics have citizen support. Design. We conducted an online survey in 20 countries, comparing support for 5 common metrics (prognosis, age, quality of life, past and future contribution as a health care worker) to a benchmark consisting of support for 2 no-triage mechanisms (first-come-first-served and random allocation). Results. We surveyed nationally representative samples of 1000 citizens in each of Brazil, France, Japan, and the United States and also self-selected samples from 20 countries (total N = 7599) obtained through a citizen science website (the Moral Machine). We computed the support for each metric by comparing its usability to the usability of the 2 no-triage mechanisms. We further analyzed the polarizing nature of each metric by considering its usability among participants who had a preference for no triage. In all countries, preferences were polarized, with the 2 largest groups preferring either no triage or extensive triage using all metrics. Prognosis was the least controversial metric. There was little support for giving priority to healthcare workers. Conclusions. It will be difficult to define triage guidelines that elicit public trust and approval. Given the importance of prognosis in triage protocols, it is reassuring that it is the least controversial metric. Experts will need to prepare strong arguments for other metrics if they wish to preserve public trust and morale during health crises. Highlights: We collected citizen preferences regarding triage decisions about scarce medical resources from 20 countries.We find that citizen preferences are universally polarized.Citizens either prefer no triage (random allocation or first-come-first served) or extensive triage using all common triage metrics, with "prognosis" being the least controversial.Experts will need to prepare strong arguments to preserve or elicit public trust in triage decisions. 

Abstract:
Second-Price Auctions with Private Entry Costs.

We study asymmetric second-price auctions under incomplete information. The bidders have two potentially different, commonly known, valuations for the object and private information about their entry costs. The seller, however, does not benefit from these entry costs. We calculate the equilibrium strategies of the bidders and analyze the optimal design for the seller in this environment in terms of expected entry and the number of potential bidders. 

Abstract:
Technical change and the demand for talent.

Technical change shifts the relative importance of certain economic activities over others, effectively determining the incidence of barriers to the transition of workers across occupations on output and inequality. To what extent has technical change mitigated or exacerbated the incidence of these barriers? to answer this question we study the link between occupation-specific labor market barriers, as measured in Hsieh et al. (2019), and capital-embodied technical change (CETC), as measured in Caunedo et al. (2021). We find that CETC mitigated the incidence of labor market barriers on output per worker by 9.1%, in the US between 1984 and 2014. A forecasting exercise over the next 10 years suggests that if the path of CETC follows the one observed during the previous 10 years, the gender wage gap should widen by 0.12p.p. per year and the race wage gap should widen by 0.07p.p. per year. The reason is that female and black workers face higher barriers in occupations where CETC rises wages the most. In addition, the model also predicts that absent mitigation policies, the skill-premium should rise at 0.24p.p. per year, twice as fast as the observed change in the last 10 years of our sample. 

Abstract:
The effect of increasing Women's autonomy on primary and repeated caesarean sections in Brazil.

Caesarean section (C-section) rates continue to rise globally. Yet, there is little consensus about the key determinants of rising C-section rates and the sources of variation in C-section rates across the world. While C-sections can save lives when medically justified, unnecessary surgical procedures can be harmful for women and babies. We show that a state-wide law passed in São Paulo (Brazil), which increased women's autonomy to choose to deliver via C-section even when not medically necessary, is associated with a 3% increase in overall C-section rates. This association was driven by a 5% increase in primary C-sections, rather than repeated C-sections. Since the law emphasizes women's autonomy, these results are consistent with mothers' demand being an important contributor to high C-section rates in this context. 

Abstract:
Transportation to work by sexual orientation.

We analyze differences in mode of transportation to work by sexual orientation, using the American Community Survey 2008-2019. Working individuals in same-sex couples are significantly less likely to drive to work than working men and women in different-sex couples. This gap is particularly stark among men: on average, almost 12 percentage point (or 13%) lower likelihood of driving to work for men in same-sex couples. Working individuals in same-sex couples are also more likely to use public transport, walk, or bike to work. Men and women are 7 and 3 percentage points more likely, respectively, to take public transportation to work than those in different-sex couples. Working men are also more likely to work from home-while working women are less likely-than those in different-sex couples. These differences persist after controlling for demographic characteristics, partner's characteristics, location, fertility, marital status, occupation or industry, and family income. Additional evidence from the General Social Survey 2008-2018 suggests that these disparities by sexual orientation may be due to lesbian, gay, and bisexual individuals valuing the environment more than straight individuals. 

Abstract:
Uncovering the Dialogical Dimension of Corporate Responsibility: Towards a Transcendental Approach to Economics, with an Application to the Circular Economy.

 

Abstract:
Undergraduate Research in Economics.

 

Abstract:
Causal Framework of Artificial Autonomous Agent Responsibility.

 

Abstract:
Humanising Business Education with Moral Imagination and Human Betterment: the contribution of the Circular Economy to a renewed Philosophy of Higher Education.

 

Abstract:
Students’ Academic Misconduct and Lecturers’ Responsibility in the age of Blended Learning: Recognition and Dialogue as pedagogical drivers to build integrity.