Seminar
Capacity Choice, Momentum, and Long-Term Reversals
Accounting
Speaker: | Peter Pope, London School of Economics |
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Website: | http://www.lse.ac.uk/accounting/facultyAndStaff/profiles/Pope.aspx |
Date: | Wednesday 25 February 2015 |
Time: | 14:00 |
Location: | Constantine Leventis |
Further details
A copy of the full paper can be found here: www.dropbox.com/s/fj99xzwmaarrbva/Peter%20Pope%2025%20February%202015.pdf
Abstract
A real options-based firm valuation model suggests that momentum and long-term reversal
effects in stock returns arise through an excess capacity channel linked to expected returns. The model predicts that momentum losers have mild excess capacity, but fully utilize their capacity, resulting in expected returns that are lower than for momentum winners. In contrast, long-term losers have higher excess capacity and a less than full capacity utilization, resulting in expected returns that are higher than for long-term winners. Cross-sectional and time-series tests show that a fundamentals-based proxy for excess capacity strongly conditions the momentum and long-term reversal effects in ways consistent with the model’s testable implications. Keywords Irreversible investment; real options; capacity choice; momentum effect; long-term reversal effect; stock returns; JEL Classification G11, G12, G15