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Professor Stephen Disney

Professor Stephen Disney

Professor of Operations, Head of Science, Innovation, Technology and Entrepreneurship (SITE)

5968

+44 (0) 1392 725968


Streatham Court, University of Exeter, Rennes Drive, Exeter, EX4 4PU, UK

Professor Disney is a Professor of Operations Management at the University of Exeter Business School. Previously he worked at Cardiff Business School and recently spent 12 months on Research Leave at the University of California, Los Angeles. Professor Disney has previously held visiting positions at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and at Boston University.

Nationality: British

Research interests

  • Bullwhip effect
  • Supply chain dynamics
  • Inventory management
  • Forecasting
  • Control theory
  • Collaboration
  • Closed-loop supply chains

Professor Disney’s research interests involve the application of control theory and statistical techniques to operations management and supply chain scenarios to investigate their dynamic, stochastic, and economic performance. Stephen has a particular interest in the bullwhip effect, forecasting, and inventory management. Stephen has advised several of the world’s largest corporations on the bullwhip effect and his research has influenced the material flow of at least 1 in every 7 pounds of UK retail sales. He has worked with many companies in the UK, US, and Europe and on supply chains that operate globally.

Research projects

Professor Disney is currently exploring the dynamics of global dual sourcing supply chains. He is also writing a book entitled “Setting the cadence of your pacemaker: A lean workbook for reducing you Mura and Muri”.

Key publications | Publications by category | Publications by year

Key publications


Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM, Eyers DR, Holmström J, Syntetos AA, Wang X (2019). Economies of collaboration in build-to-model operations. Journal of Operations Management, 65, 753-773. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2018). A unified theory of the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 313-326. Full text. DOI.
Chintapalli P, Disney SM, Tang CS (2017). Coordinating Supply Chains via Advance-Order Discounts, Minimum Order Quantities, and Delegations. Production and Operations Management, 26(12), 2175-2186. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Disney SM, Maltz A, Wang X, Warburton RDH (2016). Inventory management for stochastic lead times with order crossovers. European Journal of Operational Research, 248(2), 473-486. Full text. DOI.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2016). Inventory performance under staggered deliveries and autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 1082-1091. Full text. DOI.

Publications by category


Journal articles

Michna Z, Disney SM, Nielsen P (2020). The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect under correlated demand and moving average forecasts. Omega, 93, 102033-102033. Full text. DOI.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM, Eyers DR, Holmström J, Syntetos AA, Wang X (2019). Economies of collaboration in build-to-model operations. Journal of Operations Management, 65, 753-773. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Petropoulos F, Wang X, Disney SM (2019). The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(1), 251-265. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2018). A unified theory of the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 313-326. Full text. DOI.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2018). Avoiding the capacity cost trap: Three means of smoothing under cyclical production planning. International Journal of Production Economics, 201, 149-162. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Chintapalli P, Disney SM, Tang CS (2017). Coordinating Supply Chains via Advance-Order Discounts, Minimum Order Quantities, and Delegations. Production and Operations Management, 26(12), 2175-2186. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Ponte B, Wang X, de la Fuente D, Disney SM (2017). Exploring nonlinear supply chains: the dynamics of capacity constraints. International Journal of Production Research, 55(14), 4053-4067. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Syntetos AA, Boylan JE, Disney SM (2017). Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(sup1), S149-S160. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2017). Mitigating variance amplification under stochastic lead-time: the proportional control approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 256(1), 151-162. Full text. DOI.
Li Q, Disney SM (2017). Revisiting rescheduling: MRP nervousness and the bullwhip effect. International Journal of Production Research, 55(7), 1992-2012. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Zhou L, Naim MM, Disney SM (2017). The impact of product returns and remanufacturing uncertainties on the dynamic performance of a multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 183, 487-502. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Disney SM, Maltz A, Wang X, Warburton RDH (2016). Inventory management for stochastic lead times with order crossovers. European Journal of Operational Research, 248(2), 473-486. Full text. DOI.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2016). Inventory performance under staggered deliveries and autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 1082-1091. Full text. DOI.
Disney SM (2016). Revisiting activity sampling: a fresh look at binomial proportion confidence intervals. European Journal of Industrial Engineering, 10(6), 724-759. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Lun YHV, Quaddus M, Naim M, Disney S (2016). Special issue on "innovative service and manufacturing design". International Journal of Production Economics, 171, 163-164. Full text. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2016). The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions. European Journal of Operational Research, 250(3), 691-701. Full text. DOI.
Disney SM, Gaalman GJC, Hedenstierna CPT, Hosoda T (2015). Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand. International Journal of Production Economics, 170, 501-512. Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Williams SJ, Nussey I, Grubbstrom RW (2015). In Memoriam: Professor Denis R. Towill 1933-2015. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION ECONOMICS, 170, III-V. Author URL. DOI.
Piboonrungroj P, Disney SM (2015). Supply chain collaboration in tourism: a transaction cost economics analysis. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 4(3), 25-31. Abstract.
Hosoda T, Disney SM, Gavirneni S (2015). The impact of information sharing, random yield, correlation, and lead times in closed loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 246(3), 827-836. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Houdt BV (2014). Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 232(1), 52-63. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM, Wang J (2014). Exploring the oscillatory dynamics of a forbidden returns inventory system. International Journal of Production Economics, 147, 3-12. DOI.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH, Zhong QC (2013). Net present value analysis of the economic production quantity. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 24(4), 423-435. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2012). A delayed demand supply chain: Incentives for upstream players. Omega, 40(4), 478-487. DOI.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH (2012). On the Lambert W function: Economic Order Quantity applications and pedagogical considerations. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(2), 756-764. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2012). On the replenishment policy when the market demand information is lagged. International Journal of Production Economics, 135(1), 458-467. DOI.
Disney SM, Bogataj M, Tang O (2012). Sixteenth international working seminar on production economics, Innsbruck, 2010. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(2), 557-558. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM, Wang J (2012). Stability analysis of constrained inventory systems with transportation delay. European Journal of Operational Research, 223(1), 86-95. DOI.
Childerhouse P, Deakins E, Böhme T, Towill DR, Disney SM, Banomyong R (2011). Supply chain integration: an international comparison of maturity. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 23(4), 531-552. Abstract. DOI.
Zhou L, Disney S, Towill DR (2010). A pragmatic approach to the design of bullwhip controllers. International Journal of Production Economics, 128(2), 556-568. DOI.
Ketokivi M, Heikkilä J (2010). A strategic management system for manufacturing: linking action to performance. Production Planning & Control, 14(6), 487-486. DOI.
Cannella S, Ciancimino E, Framinan JM, Disney SM (2010). The four supply chain archetypes. Universia Business Review, 26, 134-149. Abstract.
Disney SM, Hosoda T (2009). Altruistic behaviour in a two-echelon supply chain with unmatched proportional feedback controllers. International Journal of Intelligent Systems Technologies and Applications, 6(3-4), 269-286. Abstract. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2009). Designing replenishment rules in a two-echelon supply chain with a flexible or an inflexible capacity strategy. International Journal of Production Economics, 119(1), 187-198. DOI.
Disney S (2009). Editorial for the special issue: papers from the 19th international conference on production research. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 12(4), 231-232. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2009). Impact of market demand mis-specification on a two-level supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 121(2), 739-751. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2009). On a myth in supply chain management. Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association, 59(6), 431-436. Abstract.
Gaalman G, Disney SM (2009). On bullwhip in a family of order-up-to policies with ARMA(2,2) demand and arbitrary lead-times. International Journal of Production Economics, 121(2), 454-463. DOI.
Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2009). The effects of schedule volatility on supply chain performance. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 12(4), 313-328. DOI.
Potter A, Towill D, Böhme T, Disney S (2009). The influence of multi-product production strategy on factory induced bullwhip. International Journal of Production Research, 47(20), 5739-5759. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2008). A win–win solution for the bullwhip problem. Production Planning & Control, 19(7), 702-711. DOI.
Hosoda T, Naim MM, Disney SM, Potter A (2008). Is there a benefit to sharing market sales information? Linking theory and practice. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 54(2), 315-326. DOI.
Towill DR, Disney SM (2008). Managing Bullwhip-induced risks in supply chains. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 10(3), 238-238. DOI.
Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2008). On the impact of order volatility in the European automotive sector. International Journal of Production Economics, 114(1), 2-13. DOI.
Disney SM (2008). Supply chain aperiodicity, bullwhip and stability analysis with Jury's inners. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 19(2), 101-116. DOI.
III AL, Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR, McCormack K (2008). The impact of process maturity and uncertainty on supply chain performance: an empirical study. International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 15(1), 12-12. DOI.
Disney SM, Lambrecht M, Towill DR, Van de Velde W (2008). The value of coordination in a two-echelon supply chain. IIE Transactions, 40(3), 341-355. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2007). An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research, 178(1), 121-142. DOI.
Disney SM, Farasyn I, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR, Van De Velde W (2007). Controlling bullwhip and inventory variability with the golden smoothing rule. European Journal of Industrial Engineering, 1(3), 241-265. Abstract. DOI.
Disney. SM, Grubbström RW (2007). Economic consequences of a production and inventory control policy. International Journal of Production Research, 42(17), 3419-3431. DOI.
Warburton RDH, Disney SM (2007). Order and inventory variance amplification: the equivalence of discrete and continuous time analyses. International Journal of Production Economics, 110(1-2), 128-137. DOI.
Towill DR, Zhou L, Disney SM (2007). Reducing the bullwhip effect: Looking through the appropriate lens. International Journal of Production Economics, 108(1-2), 444-453. DOI.
Childerhouse. P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2007). Tailored toolkit to enable seamless supply chains. International Journal of Production Research, 42(17), 3627-3646. DOI.
Warburton RDH, Disney SM, Towill DR, Hodgson JPE (2007). Technical Note: Further insights into ‘the stability of supply chains’. International Journal of Production Research, 42(3), 639-648. DOI.
Chen YF, Disney SM (2007). The myopic Order-Up-To policy with a proportional feedback controller. International Journal of Production Research, 45(2), 351-368. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). A methodology for benchmarking replenishment‐induced bullwhip. Supply Chain Management: an International Journal, 11(2), 160-168. DOI.
Potter A, Disney SM (2006). Bullwhip and batching: an exploration. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 408-418. DOI.
Lalwani CS, Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). Controllable, observable and stable state space representations of a generalized order-up-to policy. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 172-184. DOI.
Hayya JC, Kim JG, Disney SM, Harrison TP, Chatfield D (2006). Estimation in supply chain inventory management. International Journal of Production Research, 44(7), 1313-1330. DOI.
Lalwani CS, Disney SM, Naim MM (2006). On assessing the sensitivity to uncertainty in distribution network design. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 36(1), 5-21. DOI.
Geary S, Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). On bullwhip in supply chains—historical review, present practice and expected future impact. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 2-18. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR, Warburton RDH (2006). On the equivalence of control theoretic, differential, and difference equation approaches to modeling supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 194-208. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006). On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting. Omega, 34(4), 344-358. DOI.
Gaalman G, Disney SM (2006). State space investigation of the bullwhip problem with ARMA(1,1) demand processes. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 327-339. DOI.
Disney SM, Farasyn I, Lambrecht M, Towill DR, de Velde WV (2006). Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon. European Journal of Operational Research, 173(1), 151-172. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006). The governing dynamics of supply chains: the impact of altruistic behaviour. Automatica, 42(8), 1301-1309. DOI.
Zhou L, Xu SJ, Disney SM (2005). Analysis and optimization of inventory variance and bullwhip in a manufacturing/remanufacturing system. Shanghai Jiaotong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 39(10), 1587-1591. Abstract.  Full text.
Zhou L, Disney SM (2005). Bullwhip and inventory variance in a closed loop supply chain. OR Spectrum, 28(1), 127-149. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2005). Eliminating drift in inventory and order based production control systems. International Journal of Production Economics, 93-94, 331-344. DOI.
Disney SM, Lambrecht MR (2005). On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting, and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains. Foundations and Trends® in Technology, Information and Operations Management, 2(1), 1-80. DOI.
Holweg M, Disney S, Holmström J, Småros J (2005). Supply Chain Collaboration:. European Management Journal, 23(2), 170-181. DOI.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Potter A (2004). Assessing the impact of e-business on supply chain dynamics. International Journal of Production Economics, 89(2), 109-118. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2004). The impact of information enrichment on the Bullwhip effect in supply chains: a control engineering perspective. European Journal of Operational Research, 153(3), 727-750. DOI.
Holweg M, Disney SM, Hines P, Naim MM (2004). Towards responsive vehicle supply: a simulation-based investigation into automotive scheduling systems. Journal of Operations Management, 23(5), 507-530. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR, van de Velde W (2004). Variance amplification and the golden ratio in production and inventory control. International Journal of Production Economics, 90(3), 295-309. DOI.
Towill DR, Lambrecht MR, Disney SM, Dejonckheere J (2003). Explicit filters and supply chain design. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 9(2), 73-81. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2003). Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: a control theoretic approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 147(3), 567-590. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy. Omega, 31(3), 157-167. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht M, Towill DR (2003). The dynamics of aggregate planning. Production Planning and Control, 14(6), 497-516. Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). The effect of vendor managed inventory (VMI) dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 85(2), 199-215. DOI.
Disney SM, Potter AT, Gardner BM (2003). The impact of vendor managed inventory on transport operations. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 39(5), 363-380. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). Vendor-managed inventory and bullwhip reduction in a two-level supply chain. International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 23(5-6), 625-651. Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A discrete transfer function model to determine the dynamic stability of a vendor managed inventory supply chain. International Journal of Production Research, 40(1), 179-204. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A procedure for the optimization of the dynamic response of a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 43(1-2), 27-58. DOI.
Naim MM, Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A supply chain diagnostic methodology: determining the vector of change. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 43(1-2), 135-157. DOI.
Towill DR, Childerhouse P, Disney SM (2002). Integrating the automotive supply chain: Where are we now?. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 32(2), 79-95. Abstract. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2002). Transfer function analysis of forecasting induced bullwhip in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 78(2), 133-144. DOI.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Towill DR (2000). Genetic algorithm optimisation of a class of inventory control systems. International Journal of Production Economics, 68(3), 259-278. DOI.
Towill DR, Childerhouse P, Disney SM (2000). Speeding up the progress curve towards effective supply chain management. Supply Chain Management: an International Journal, 5(3), 122-130. DOI.
Hong-Minh SM, Disney SM, Naim MM (2000). The dynamics of emergency transhipment supply chains. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 30(9), 788-815. Abstract. DOI.
Hammant J, Disney SM, Childerhouse P, Naim MM (1999). Modelling the consequences of a strategic supply chain initiative of an automotive aftermarket operation. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 29(9), 535-550. Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Towill DR (1997). Dynamic simulation modelling for lean logistics. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 27(3-4), 174-196. DOI.

Chapters

Hedenstrierna, CPT, Disney S, Holmstrom, J (2020). Service levels in make-to-order production: 3D printing applications. In Eyers D (Ed) Managing 3D Printing: Operations Management for Additive Manufacturing, Palgrave Macmillan. Abstract.  Full text.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2008). A generalized order-up-to policy and altruistic behaviour in a three-level supply chain. In  (Ed) Supply Chain Management and Knowledge Management: Integrating Critical Perspectives in Theory and Practice, 190-213. DOI.
Strohhecker S, Disney SM, Naim MM (2008). Understanding supply chain dynamics via simulation. In  (Ed) Construction Supply Chain Management Handbook.  Abstract.

Conferences

Hosoda T, Disney S, Zhou L (2020). Challenges within closed-loop supply chains: Remedies for the conflict between sustainability and system-wide cost. 21st International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 24th - 28th Feb 2020. Abstract.
Boute R, Disney S, Van Mieghem J (2020). Global dual sourcing under correlated demand. 21st International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 24th - 28th Feb 2020. Abstract.
Gijsbrechts J, Boute R, Disney S, Van Meighem J (2020). Local supply inflexibility in dual-source supply chains: Optimal policy and cost implications. 21st International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 24th - 28th Feb 2020. Abstract.
Disney SM, Ponte B, Wang X (2019). The Nonlinear Dynamics of Order-Up-To Inventory Systems with Lost Sales.  Author URL.  Full text. DOI.
Gaalman G, Disney SM, Wang X (2019). When the Bullwhip Effect is an Increasing Function of the Lead Time.  Author URL.  Full text. DOI.
Rostami-Tabar B, Disney SM (2017). The bullwhip effect under count time series: the case of first order integer auto-regressive demand processes.  Abstract.  Full text.
Li Q, Disney S (2016). On net stock amplification in the Damped Trend Order-Up-To system.  Abstract. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2016). Reducing order and inventory variability under stochastic lead-time and correlated demand.  Abstract. DOI.
Li Q, Disney SM, Gaalman G (2014). Avoiding the bullwhip effect using Damped Trend forecasting and the Order-Up-To replenishment policy.  Abstract. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2011). Stability analysis of a constrained inventory system.  Abstract.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH, Zhong QC (2010). Net present value analysis of the economic production quantity.  Abstract.
Ratanachote P-N, Disney S (2009). Distribution network dynamics with correlated demands. 16th EurOMA Annual Conference. 14th - 17th Jun 2009. Abstract.  Full text.
Syntetos AA, Boylan JE, Disney SM (2008). Inventory forecasting and planning: a 50-year review.  Abstract.
Ratanachote P-N, Disney S (2008). On the square root law for bullwhip: the case of arbitrary lead-times and AR(1) demand. Pre-prints of the 15th International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 3rd - 7th Mar 2008. Abstract.  Full text.
Disney SM (2007). The dynamics of material flows in supply chains.  Abstract.
Zhou L, Disney SM, Lalwani CS, Wu HL (2004). Reverse logistics: a study of bullwhip in continuous time.  Abstract.
Naim MM, Disney SM, Evans GN (2002). Minimum Reasonable Inventory and the Bullwhip Effect in an Automotive Enterprise; a “Foresight Vehicle” Demonstrator. SAE 2002 World Congress &. Exhibition. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2001). A linear pic system that can operate in a non-linear world.  Author URL.

Publications by year


2020

Hosoda T, Disney S, Zhou L (2020). Challenges within closed-loop supply chains: Remedies for the conflict between sustainability and system-wide cost. 21st International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 24th - 28th Feb 2020. Abstract.
Boute R, Disney S, Van Mieghem J (2020). Global dual sourcing under correlated demand. 21st International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 24th - 28th Feb 2020. Abstract.
Gijsbrechts J, Boute R, Disney S, Van Meighem J (2020). Local supply inflexibility in dual-source supply chains: Optimal policy and cost implications. 21st International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 24th - 28th Feb 2020. Abstract.
Hedenstrierna, CPT, Disney S, Holmstrom, J (2020). Service levels in make-to-order production: 3D printing applications. In Eyers D (Ed) Managing 3D Printing: Operations Management for Additive Manufacturing, Palgrave Macmillan. Abstract.  Full text.
Michna Z, Disney SM, Nielsen P (2020). The impact of stochastic lead times on the bullwhip effect under correlated demand and moving average forecasts. Omega, 93, 102033-102033. Full text. DOI.

2019

Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM, Eyers DR, Holmström J, Syntetos AA, Wang X (2019). Economies of collaboration in build-to-model operations. Journal of Operations Management, 65, 753-773. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Disney SM, Ponte B, Wang X (2019). The Nonlinear Dynamics of Order-Up-To Inventory Systems with Lost Sales.  Author URL.  Full text. DOI.
Petropoulos F, Wang X, Disney SM (2019). The inventory performance of forecasting methods: Evidence from the M3 competition data. International Journal of Forecasting, 35(1), 251-265. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Gaalman G, Disney SM, Wang X (2019). When the Bullwhip Effect is an Increasing Function of the Lead Time.  Author URL.  Full text. DOI.

2018

Hosoda T, Disney SM (2018). A unified theory of the dynamics of closed-loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 269(1), 313-326. Full text. DOI.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2018). Avoiding the capacity cost trap: Three means of smoothing under cyclical production planning. International Journal of Production Economics, 201, 149-162. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.

2017

Chintapalli P, Disney SM, Tang CS (2017). Coordinating Supply Chains via Advance-Order Discounts, Minimum Order Quantities, and Delegations. Production and Operations Management, 26(12), 2175-2186. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Ponte B, Wang X, de la Fuente D, Disney SM (2017). Exploring nonlinear supply chains: the dynamics of capacity constraints. International Journal of Production Research, 55(14), 4053-4067. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Syntetos AA, Boylan JE, Disney SM (2017). Forecasting for inventory planning: a 50-year review. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(sup1), S149-S160. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2017). Mitigating variance amplification under stochastic lead-time: the proportional control approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 256(1), 151-162. Full text. DOI.
Li Q, Disney SM (2017). Revisiting rescheduling: MRP nervousness and the bullwhip effect. International Journal of Production Research, 55(7), 1992-2012. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Rostami-Tabar B, Disney SM (2017). The bullwhip effect under count time series: the case of first order integer auto-regressive demand processes.  Abstract.  Full text.
Zhou L, Naim MM, Disney SM (2017). The impact of product returns and remanufacturing uncertainties on the dynamic performance of a multi-echelon closed-loop supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 183, 487-502. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.

2016

Disney SM, Maltz A, Wang X, Warburton RDH (2016). Inventory management for stochastic lead times with order crossovers. European Journal of Operational Research, 248(2), 473-486. Full text. DOI.
Hedenstierna CPT, Disney SM (2016). Inventory performance under staggered deliveries and autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 1082-1091. Full text. DOI.
Li Q, Disney S (2016). On net stock amplification in the Damped Trend Order-Up-To system.  Abstract. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2016). Reducing order and inventory variability under stochastic lead-time and correlated demand.  Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM (2016). Revisiting activity sampling: a fresh look at binomial proportion confidence intervals. European Journal of Industrial Engineering, 10(6), 724-759. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.
Lun YHV, Quaddus M, Naim M, Disney S (2016). Special issue on "innovative service and manufacturing design". International Journal of Production Economics, 171, 163-164. Full text. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM (2016). The bullwhip effect: Progress, trends and directions. European Journal of Operational Research, 250(3), 691-701. Full text. DOI.

2015

Disney SM, Gaalman GJC, Hedenstierna CPT, Hosoda T (2015). Fill rate in a periodic review order-up-to policy under auto-correlated normally distributed, possibly negative, demand. International Journal of Production Economics, 170, 501-512. Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM, Naim MM, Williams SJ, Nussey I, Grubbstrom RW (2015). In Memoriam: Professor Denis R. Towill 1933-2015. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PRODUCTION ECONOMICS, 170, III-V. Author URL. DOI.
Piboonrungroj P, Disney SM (2015). Supply chain collaboration in tourism: a transaction cost economics analysis. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 4(3), 25-31. Abstract.
Hosoda T, Disney SM, Gavirneni S (2015). The impact of information sharing, random yield, correlation, and lead times in closed loop supply chains. European Journal of Operational Research, 246(3), 827-836. Abstract.  Full text. DOI.

2014

Li Q, Disney SM, Gaalman G (2014). Avoiding the bullwhip effect using Damped Trend forecasting and the Order-Up-To replenishment policy.  Abstract. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Houdt BV (2014). Coordinating lead times and safety stocks under autocorrelated demand. European Journal of Operational Research, 232(1), 52-63. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM, Wang J (2014). Exploring the oscillatory dynamics of a forbidden returns inventory system. International Journal of Production Economics, 147, 3-12. DOI.

2013

Disney SM, Warburton RDH, Zhong QC (2013). Net present value analysis of the economic production quantity. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 24(4), 423-435. DOI.

2012

Hosoda T, Disney SM (2012). A delayed demand supply chain: Incentives for upstream players. Omega, 40(4), 478-487. DOI.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH (2012). On the Lambert W function: Economic Order Quantity applications and pedagogical considerations. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(2), 756-764. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2012). On the replenishment policy when the market demand information is lagged. International Journal of Production Economics, 135(1), 458-467. DOI.
Disney SM, Bogataj M, Tang O (2012). Sixteenth international working seminar on production economics, Innsbruck, 2010. International Journal of Production Economics, 140(2), 557-558. DOI.
Wang X, Disney SM, Wang J (2012). Stability analysis of constrained inventory systems with transportation delay. European Journal of Operational Research, 223(1), 86-95. DOI.

2011

Wang X, Disney SM (2011). Stability analysis of a constrained inventory system.  Abstract.
Childerhouse P, Deakins E, Böhme T, Towill DR, Disney SM, Banomyong R (2011). Supply chain integration: an international comparison of maturity. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, 23(4), 531-552. Abstract. DOI.

2010

Zhou L, Disney S, Towill DR (2010). A pragmatic approach to the design of bullwhip controllers. International Journal of Production Economics, 128(2), 556-568. DOI.
Ketokivi M, Heikkilä J (2010). A strategic management system for manufacturing: linking action to performance. Production Planning & Control, 14(6), 487-486. DOI.
Disney SM, Warburton RDH, Zhong QC (2010). Net present value analysis of the economic production quantity.  Abstract.
Cannella S, Ciancimino E, Framinan JM, Disney SM (2010). The four supply chain archetypes. Universia Business Review, 26, 134-149. Abstract.

2009

Disney SM, Hosoda T (2009). Altruistic behaviour in a two-echelon supply chain with unmatched proportional feedback controllers. International Journal of Intelligent Systems Technologies and Applications, 6(3-4), 269-286. Abstract. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2009). Designing replenishment rules in a two-echelon supply chain with a flexible or an inflexible capacity strategy. International Journal of Production Economics, 119(1), 187-198. DOI.
Ratanachote P-N, Disney S (2009). Distribution network dynamics with correlated demands. 16th EurOMA Annual Conference. 14th - 17th Jun 2009. Abstract.  Full text.
Disney S (2009). Editorial for the special issue: papers from the 19th international conference on production research. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 12(4), 231-232. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2009). Impact of market demand mis-specification on a two-level supply chain. International Journal of Production Economics, 121(2), 739-751. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2009). On a myth in supply chain management. Journal of Japan Industrial Management Association, 59(6), 431-436. Abstract.
Gaalman G, Disney SM (2009). On bullwhip in a family of order-up-to policies with ARMA(2,2) demand and arbitrary lead-times. International Journal of Production Economics, 121(2), 454-463. DOI.
Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2009). The effects of schedule volatility on supply chain performance. International Journal of Logistics Research and Applications, 12(4), 313-328. DOI.
Potter A, Towill D, Böhme T, Disney S (2009). The influence of multi-product production strategy on factory induced bullwhip. International Journal of Production Research, 47(20), 5739-5759. DOI.

2008

Hosoda T, Disney SM (2008). A generalized order-up-to policy and altruistic behaviour in a three-level supply chain. In  (Ed) Supply Chain Management and Knowledge Management: Integrating Critical Perspectives in Theory and Practice, 190-213. DOI.
Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2008). A win–win solution for the bullwhip problem. Production Planning & Control, 19(7), 702-711. DOI.
Syntetos AA, Boylan JE, Disney SM (2008). Inventory forecasting and planning: a 50-year review.  Abstract.
Hosoda T, Naim MM, Disney SM, Potter A (2008). Is there a benefit to sharing market sales information? Linking theory and practice. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 54(2), 315-326. DOI.
Towill DR, Disney SM (2008). Managing Bullwhip-induced risks in supply chains. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, 10(3), 238-238. DOI.
Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2008). On the impact of order volatility in the European automotive sector. International Journal of Production Economics, 114(1), 2-13. DOI.
Ratanachote P-N, Disney S (2008). On the square root law for bullwhip: the case of arbitrary lead-times and AR(1) demand. Pre-prints of the 15th International Working Seminar of Production Economics. 3rd - 7th Mar 2008. Abstract.  Full text.
Disney SM (2008). Supply chain aperiodicity, bullwhip and stability analysis with Jury's inners. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 19(2), 101-116. DOI.
III AL, Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR, McCormack K (2008). The impact of process maturity and uncertainty on supply chain performance: an empirical study. International Journal of Manufacturing Technology and Management, 15(1), 12-12. DOI.
Disney SM, Lambrecht M, Towill DR, Van de Velde W (2008). The value of coordination in a two-echelon supply chain. IIE Transactions, 40(3), 341-355. DOI.
Strohhecker S, Disney SM, Naim MM (2008). Understanding supply chain dynamics via simulation. In  (Ed) Construction Supply Chain Management Handbook.  Abstract.

2007

Boute RN, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Van Houdt B (2007). An integrated production and inventory model to dampen upstream demand variability in the supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research, 178(1), 121-142. DOI.
Disney SM, Farasyn I, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR, Van De Velde W (2007). Controlling bullwhip and inventory variability with the golden smoothing rule. European Journal of Industrial Engineering, 1(3), 241-265. Abstract. DOI.
Disney. SM, Grubbström RW (2007). Economic consequences of a production and inventory control policy. International Journal of Production Research, 42(17), 3419-3431. DOI.
Warburton RDH, Disney SM (2007). Order and inventory variance amplification: the equivalence of discrete and continuous time analyses. International Journal of Production Economics, 110(1-2), 128-137. DOI.
Towill DR, Zhou L, Disney SM (2007). Reducing the bullwhip effect: Looking through the appropriate lens. International Journal of Production Economics, 108(1-2), 444-453. DOI.
Childerhouse. P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2007). Tailored toolkit to enable seamless supply chains. International Journal of Production Research, 42(17), 3627-3646. DOI.
Warburton RDH, Disney SM, Towill DR, Hodgson JPE (2007). Technical Note: Further insights into ‘the stability of supply chains’. International Journal of Production Research, 42(3), 639-648. DOI.
Disney SM (2007). The dynamics of material flows in supply chains.  Abstract.
Chen YF, Disney SM (2007). The myopic Order-Up-To policy with a proportional feedback controller. International Journal of Production Research, 45(2), 351-368. DOI.

2006

Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). A methodology for benchmarking replenishment‐induced bullwhip. Supply Chain Management: an International Journal, 11(2), 160-168. DOI.
Potter A, Disney SM (2006). Bullwhip and batching: an exploration. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 408-418. DOI.
Lalwani CS, Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). Controllable, observable and stable state space representations of a generalized order-up-to policy. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 172-184. DOI.
Hayya JC, Kim JG, Disney SM, Harrison TP, Chatfield D (2006). Estimation in supply chain inventory management. International Journal of Production Research, 44(7), 1313-1330. DOI.
Lalwani CS, Disney SM, Naim MM (2006). On assessing the sensitivity to uncertainty in distribution network design. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 36(1), 5-21. DOI.
Geary S, Disney SM, Towill DR (2006). On bullwhip in supply chains—historical review, present practice and expected future impact. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 2-18. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR, Warburton RDH (2006). On the equivalence of control theoretic, differential, and difference equation approaches to modeling supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 101(1), 194-208. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006). On variance amplification in a three-echelon supply chain with minimum mean square error forecasting. Omega, 34(4), 344-358. DOI.
Gaalman G, Disney SM (2006). State space investigation of the bullwhip problem with ARMA(1,1) demand processes. International Journal of Production Economics, 104(2), 327-339. DOI.
Disney SM, Farasyn I, Lambrecht M, Towill DR, de Velde WV (2006). Taming the bullwhip effect whilst watching customer service in a single supply chain echelon. European Journal of Operational Research, 173(1), 151-172. DOI.
Hosoda T, Disney SM (2006). The governing dynamics of supply chains: the impact of altruistic behaviour. Automatica, 42(8), 1301-1309. DOI.

2005

Zhou L, Xu SJ, Disney SM (2005). Analysis and optimization of inventory variance and bullwhip in a manufacturing/remanufacturing system. Shanghai Jiaotong Daxue Xuebao/Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 39(10), 1587-1591. Abstract.  Full text.
Zhou L, Disney SM (2005). Bullwhip and inventory variance in a closed loop supply chain. OR Spectrum, 28(1), 127-149. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2005). Eliminating drift in inventory and order based production control systems. International Journal of Production Economics, 93-94, 331-344. DOI.
Disney SM, Lambrecht MR (2005). On Replenishment Rules, Forecasting, and the Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains. Foundations and Trends® in Technology, Information and Operations Management, 2(1), 1-80. DOI.
Holweg M, Disney S, Holmström J, Småros J (2005). Supply Chain Collaboration:. European Management Journal, 23(2), 170-181. DOI.

2004

Disney SM, Naim MM, Potter A (2004). Assessing the impact of e-business on supply chain dynamics. International Journal of Production Economics, 89(2), 109-118. DOI.
Zhou L, Disney SM, Lalwani CS, Wu HL (2004). Reverse logistics: a study of bullwhip in continuous time.  Abstract.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2004). The impact of information enrichment on the Bullwhip effect in supply chains: a control engineering perspective. European Journal of Operational Research, 153(3), 727-750. DOI.
Holweg M, Disney SM, Hines P, Naim MM (2004). Towards responsive vehicle supply: a simulation-based investigation into automotive scheduling systems. Journal of Operations Management, 23(5), 507-530. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR, van de Velde W (2004). Variance amplification and the golden ratio in production and inventory control. International Journal of Production Economics, 90(3), 295-309. DOI.

2003

Towill DR, Lambrecht MR, Disney SM, Dejonckheere J (2003). Explicit filters and supply chain design. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management, 9(2), 73-81. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2003). Measuring and avoiding the bullwhip effect: a control theoretic approach. European Journal of Operational Research, 147(3), 567-590. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). On the bullwhip and inventory variance produced by an ordering policy. Omega, 31(3), 157-167. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht M, Towill DR (2003). The dynamics of aggregate planning. Production Planning and Control, 14(6), 497-516. Abstract. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). The effect of vendor managed inventory (VMI) dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 85(2), 199-215. DOI.
Disney SM, Potter AT, Gardner BM (2003). The impact of vendor managed inventory on transport operations. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 39(5), 363-380. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2003). Vendor-managed inventory and bullwhip reduction in a two-level supply chain. International Journal of Operations and Production Management, 23(5-6), 625-651. Abstract. DOI.

2002

Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A discrete transfer function model to determine the dynamic stability of a vendor managed inventory supply chain. International Journal of Production Research, 40(1), 179-204. DOI.
Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A procedure for the optimization of the dynamic response of a Vendor Managed Inventory system. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 43(1-2), 27-58. DOI.
Naim MM, Childerhouse P, Disney SM, Towill DR (2002). A supply chain diagnostic methodology: determining the vector of change. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 43(1-2), 135-157. DOI.
Towill DR, Childerhouse P, Disney SM (2002). Integrating the automotive supply chain: Where are we now?. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 32(2), 79-95. Abstract. DOI.
Naim MM, Disney SM, Evans GN (2002). Minimum Reasonable Inventory and the Bullwhip Effect in an Automotive Enterprise; a “Foresight Vehicle” Demonstrator. SAE 2002 World Congress &. Exhibition. DOI.
Dejonckheere J, Disney SM, Lambrecht MR, Towill DR (2002). Transfer function analysis of forecasting induced bullwhip in supply chains. International Journal of Production Economics, 78(2), 133-144. DOI.

2001

Disney SM, Towill DR (2001). A linear pic system that can operate in a non-linear world.  Author URL.

2000

Disney SM, Naim MM, Towill DR (2000). Genetic algorithm optimisation of a class of inventory control systems. International Journal of Production Economics, 68(3), 259-278. DOI.
Towill DR, Childerhouse P, Disney SM (2000). Speeding up the progress curve towards effective supply chain management. Supply Chain Management: an International Journal, 5(3), 122-130. DOI.
Hong-Minh SM, Disney SM, Naim MM (2000). The dynamics of emergency transhipment supply chains. International Journal of Physical Distribution and Logistics Management, 30(9), 788-815. Abstract. DOI.

1999

Hammant J, Disney SM, Childerhouse P, Naim MM (1999). Modelling the consequences of a strategic supply chain initiative of an automotive aftermarket operation. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 29(9), 535-550. Abstract. DOI.

1997

Disney SM, Naim MM, Towill DR (1997). Dynamic simulation modelling for lean logistics. International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, 27(3-4), 174-196. DOI.

Awards and Honours

  • My paper (with Borja Ponte and Xun Wang) entitled “The nonlinear dynamics of order-up-to inventory systems with lost sales”, won a Commended Paper Award at the International Federation of Automatic Control, 8th Manufacturing, Modelling, Management and Control Conference in August 2019.
  • My project with Lexmark was recognized with a prize in the supply Chain Leadership category of Frost and Sullivan's Manufacturing Leadership Awards in 2014. 

External positions

  • Associate Editor of the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (IMA-MM).
  • Editorial Board Member of the European Journal of Operational Research (EJOR).
  • Editorial Board Member of the International Journal of Production Economics (IJPE).
  • Editorial Board Member of the International Journal of Applied Management Science (IJAMS).
  • Editorial Review Board Member of the Journal of Business Logistics (JBL).

Invited lectures

  • Discrete Control Theory, International Society of Inventory Research, KULeuven, Belgium, August 2019.

In the past I have taught the following courses at Cardiff University:

  • Operations Management
  • Project Management
  • Operations Analytics (Masters)
  • Logistics and Transport Modelling (Undergraduate and Masters)
  • Supply Chain Modelling (Masters, service teaching for the Mathematics Department)
  • Operations Analysis (MBA, Exec MBA, and Part-time MBA)
  • Lean Operations (Exec MBA, and Part-time MBA)

I have also taught the following courses at Boston University, USA:

  • Project Management (Undergraduate)
  • Global Services and Supply Chain Management (Masters)
  • Quantitative and Qualitative Decision Making (Online Masters)

I also deliver executive training; for example:

  • Lexmark (Supply Chain Dynamics)
  • Yeo Valley (Dynamic Value Stream Mapping)
  • UK Intellectual Property Office (Operations Management)
  • ACME Automotive Industry of India (Dynamic Value Stream Mapping)

I have recently developed a 1-2 day course for Exec-Ed delivery entitled “Setting the cadence of your pacemaker”. The course shows you how to use dynamic value stream mapping to solve the bullwhip problem. Topics covered include: replenishment strategy selection, forecasting, designing replenishment decisions, detailed scheduling, and supplier MRP.

Professor Disney currently teaches the following Undergraduate modules at the University of Exeter:

Modules

2019/20