Publications by year
In Press
Stern P, Faulkner M, Romanuik J (In Press). How sharing of supporters reveals competition amongst non-profit brands.
Journal of Marketing ManagementAbstract:
How sharing of supporters reveals competition amongst non-profit brands
The traditional method of identifying non-profit competitors places those with similar
objectives as forming the competitive set (looking inside out). This research provides a
different perspective by looking at supporter behaviour and how this is shared across
the non-profit sector (outside in). The research also applies the Duplication-of-Purchase
law to a new context.
Four data sets from the US and Australia highlight that the overlap of supporters at
cause-based groupings (e.g. children versus animal focused) and brand level (e.g. World
Vision versus RSPCA) is largely determined by supporter numbers. This supportercentric
analytic view can highlight key competitors and potential collaborators that
would be missed using the traditional inside-out perspective.
Abstract.
Stern P, Keeling D, Rigby M, de Ruyter K, Bove L (In Press). Marketing as an Integrator in Integrated Care. European Journal of Marketing
Stern P (In Press). Re-examining age-related loyalty for low-involvement
purchasing.
European Journal of MarketingAbstract:
Re-examining age-related loyalty for low-involvement
purchasing
Purpose – Previous research on age-related loyalty is sparse, contradictory and suffers from
methodological limitations and criticisms. This study applies two methodological advances to
fresh purchasing data to give a much clearer picture of age-related differences in brand
loyalty.
Design/methodology/approach – an online brand choice survey (n=1,862) is used to
examine age-related loyalty within three low-involvement categories in New Zealand. The
polarisation index (φ) is adopted as the measure of loyalty to control for confounding
influences present in prior research. Results for chronological age are validated through
comparison with results for measures of cognitive, biological and sociological age, as well as
household lifecycle.
Findings – Contrary to prior research, age-related differences in loyalty are detected in two
of the three low-involvement categories studied. The third category does not show detectable
loyalty for any age group. While differences in brand loyalty are broadly present across all
age measures, no alternative measure outperforms chronological age in detecting variations in
age-related loyalty.
Research limitations/implications – This is the first evidence that age-related brand loyalty
is present in low involvement categories. However, effects are small, and easily obscured by
confounding factors. More research is needed to determine how results vary by category.
Practical implications – Despite showing minor differences in loyalty, older consumers still
purchase from a wide portfolio of brands and so should not be ignored by marketers. Future
research can investigate loyalty for older consumers by adopting the method of analysing
differences in polarisation (φ) for chronological age groups.
Originality/value – Previous contradictory findings and methodological concerns about
measurement of age-related loyalty are resolved through use of the polarisation index (φ) as a
measure of loyalty, and by confirmation that chronological age performs as well as any other
age measure.
Abstract.
DOI.
2023
Shrivastava U, Zantedeschi D, Jank W, Stern P (2023). The impact of increasing internet penetration on prescription choices and response to pharmaceutical detailing: a 10‐year empirical investigation.
R&D Management DOI.
2022
Mecredy PJ, Wright MJ, Feetham PM, Stern P (2022). Empirical generalisations in customer mindset metrics.
JOURNAL OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR,
21(1), 102-120.
Author URL.
DOI.
2021
Faulkner M, Romaniuk J, Stern P (2021). New versus Frequent Donors: Exploring the Behaviour of the Most Desirable Donors.
Australasian Marketing Journal,
24(3), 198-204.
Abstract:
New versus Frequent Donors: Exploring the Behaviour of the Most Desirable Donors
While there is no shortage of worthy recipients for prosocial behaviour, there is a constant battle to attract and keep donors. This research examines both money and blood donor behaviour for two key groups, new donors, (to grow the donor base), and frequent donors (to secure current support streams). We draw on over 1.2 million records from a U.S. health related charity for a three-year timeframe; and records of all Australian blood donors (1.1 million) for a five-year timeframe. We show the law-like patterns that underpin brand growth in other markets also apply in the non-profit sector. The vast majority of new donors give just once or twice a year with few giving at higher frequency levels. The stability of donation churn across blood and money suggests a structural norm in behaviour over time rather than an outcome of marketing activity. We discuss implications for resource allocation and marketing strategies.
Abstract.
DOI.
2019
Stern P, Keeling D, Rigby M, De Ruyter K, Bove L (2019). Marketing as an Integrator in Integrated Care.
European Journal of Marketing,
52, 2194-2206.
DOI.
2018
Stern P, Sitta D, Faulkner M (2018). What can the brand manager expect from Facebook?.
Australasian Marketing JournalAbstract:
What can the brand manager expect from Facebook?
Managers cannot afford to ignore social media and have stepped up their involvement in the belief that social media activities extend the brand’s reach and engagement with consumers. Facebook is the preeminent social medium with an ever increasing branded content. One hundred brands selected from the Interbrand “Best Global Brand Report” form the basis of this study to test research propositions about the ability of branded Facebook pages to expand and engage users. Data captured from branded Facebook pages was supplemented with socialbaker’s data. No correlation is found between the size of a brand and the number of Facebook fans, and there is no consistent relationship with user engagement and brand size.
The authors discuss broadening reach, improving engagement, interaction and activity and the implications for social media strategies and make recommendations for managing Facebook presence. Paid advertising is required to increase brand reach to all potential category users.
Abstract.
2016
Nikolopoulos K, Buxton S, Khammash M, Stern P (2016). Forecasting Branded and Generic Pharmaceuticals.
International Journal of Forecasting,
27(2), 344-357.
Abstract:
Forecasting Branded and Generic Pharmaceuticals
We forecast UK pharmaceutical time series before and after the time of patent expiry. This is a critical point in the respective lifecycle as a generic form of the product is introduced to the market, while the branded form is still available for prescription. Forecasting the number of dispensed units of branded and generic forms of pharmaceuticals is increasingly important due to their huge market value and the limited number of new ‘blockbuster’ branded drugs, as well as the imposed cost to national healthcare systems like the NHS. In this paper, eleven methods are used to forecast drug time series including Diffusion Models (Bass model & RPDM), ARIMA, Exponential smoothing (Simple and Holt), naive and regression methods. ARIMA and Holt produce accurate short term (annual) forecasts for branded and generic drugs respectively, while for the more strategic horizons of 2-5 year ahead, Naive with drift provides the most accurate forecasts.
Abstract.
DOI.
Nikolopoulos K, Buxton S, Khammash M, Stern P (2016). Forecasting branded and generic pharmaceuticals.
International Journal of Forecasting,
32(2), 344-357.
DOI.
Dibb S, Stern P (2016). Further Thoughts on the Marketing Trifid: the Case of Marketing Orientation.
Journal of Marketing Education,
22(3), 214-224.
Abstract:
Further Thoughts on the Marketing Trifid: the Case of Marketing Orientation
Marketing instructors are faced with an array of subject material from a wide variety of sources. These sources can be broadly grouped into three spheres of influence: the researcher, the teacher, and the practitioner. This article considers these three influences as elements along two dimensions, contribution and conduct. It explores the problems faced by instructors as they attempt to present a balanced view of a specific topic in class. This marketing trifid, asithas been termed, is illustrated using the concept of marketing orientation and is equally applicable to other theoretical concepts.
Abstract.
DOI.
Stern P, Wright M, Faulkner M, Konopka R (2016). Predictable Patterns of Prescribing Innovation.
Author URL.
DOI.
Stern P, Wright M (2016). The adoption of new prescription drugs is strongly associated with prior category prescribing rate.
International Journal of Research in Marketing,
33(1), 220-224.
Abstract:
The adoption of new prescription drugs is strongly associated with prior category prescribing rate
We investigate whether doctors who adopt a new drug in its first year on the market tend to be heavier category prescribers. Early studies of pharmaceutical prescribing and packaged goods purchasing suggest that innovators are heavier category users; however, this finding has received little attention and the evidence remains sparse. We examine the adoption of 36 new drugs by doctors in the United Kingdom and find that, on average, the prior category prescribing rate of innovators is about 50% higher than that of non-innovators.
Abstract.
DOI.
2015
Wright MJ, Stern P (2015). Forecasting new product trial with analogous series.
Journal of Business Research,
68(8), 1732-1738.
Abstract:
Forecasting new product trial with analogous series
This study develops a simple method for forecasting consumer trial for national product launches. The number of consumers who try a brand in its first year on the market is accurately predicted from the number trying the brand in the first thirteen weeks following launch. No information about the specific category or marketing activities is required - just a simple multiplier computed from analogous series in other markets. These analogues provide an empirical generalization that can be easily applied by practicing managers to track and forecast the success of new brand launches. When subject to an out-of-sample test involving 34 fresh data sets, the analogues demonstrated 43% reduction in mean absolute percentage error compared to the most accurate marketing science model.
Abstract.
DOI.
2014
Riebe E, Wright M, Stern P, Sharp B (2014). How to grow a brand: Retain or acquire customers?.
Journal of Business Research,
67(5), 990-997.
Abstract:
How to grow a brand: Retain or acquire customers?
While customer acquisition is clearly important for new brands, mature brands are often said to rely on defection management for maintenance and growth. Yet the theory to support this approach has been subject to very little empirical investigation. How do brands actually increase the size of their customer base? Through superior acquisition or by reducing customer defection? Or some mixture of both? Conversely, do brands decline through deficient acquisition or excessive defection? This work analyzes changes in 'first brand loyal' customers to answer these questions, using a combination of panel data on the prescribing behavior of doctors and a cross-sectional tracking survey for residential finance. This study is the first research to compare defection and acquisition against stochastic benchmarks for customer churn under stationary conditions. The results are surprising: for both growth and decline, unusual acquisition plays a much stronger role than unusual defection. This finding demonstrates that acquisition has been under-rated in the past, and implies that prospect management is at least as important as defection reduction. A simulation shows that unusual acquisition also accounts for far more improvement in profit than does unusual defection. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Abstract.
DOI.
Stern P, Trinh G, Wright M (2014). The Relationship Between Household Life Cycle and Brand Loyalty.
Advances in Consumer Research,
42, 387-391.
Abstract:
The Relationship Between Household Life Cycle and Brand Loyalty
This research investigates changes in brand loyalty as households pass from one stage of the household life cycle to another. Analysing 45 brands in three consumer product categories in the UK, we find that the changes follow a U shape pattern. Brand loyalty declines as households shift from the young single stage to the young couple and the young family stage, remains relatively lower through the older family stage, and then increases at the post family and older single stages.
Abstract.
2013
Parry S, Jones R, Stern P, Robinson M (2013). "Shockvertising': an exploratory investigation into attitudinal variations and emotional reactions to shock advertising.
JOURNAL OF CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR,
12(2), 112-121.
Author URL.
DOI.
Wieringa J, Osinga E, Conde E, Leeflang P, Stern P (2013). Modelling the effects of promotional efforts on aggregate pharmaceutical demand: what we know and challenges for the future. In Ding M, Eliashberg J, Stremmerch S (Eds.)
Innovation and Marketing in the Pharmaceutical Industry, New York: Springer, 591-628.
Abstract:
Modelling the effects of promotional efforts on aggregate pharmaceutical demand: what we know and challenges for the future.
Abstract.
DOI.
McCabe J, Stern P, Dacko SG (2013). Purposeful empiricism: How stochastic modeling informs industrial marketing research.
INDUSTRIAL MARKETING MANAGEMENT,
42(3), 421-432.
Author URL.
DOI.
McCabe J, Stern P, Dacko S (2013). Purposeful empiricism: How stochastic modeling informs industrial marketing research.
Industrial Marketing Management,
2(3), 421-432.
Abstract:
Purposeful empiricism: How stochastic modeling informs industrial marketing research
It is increasingly recognized that progress can be made in the development of integrated theory for understanding, explaining and better predicting key aspects of buyer–seller relationships and industrial networks by drawing upon non-traditional research perspectives and domains. One such non-traditional research perspective is stochastic modeling which has shown that large scale regularities emerge from the individual interactions between idiosyncratic actors. When these macroscopic patterns repeat across a wide range of firms, industries and business types this commonality suggests directions for further research which we pursue through a differentiated replication of the Dirichlet stochastic model. We demonstrate predictable behavioral patterns of purchase and loyalty in two distinct industrial markets for components used in critical surgical procedures. This differentiated replication supports the argument for the use of stochastic modeling techniques in industrial marketing management, not only as a management tool but also as a lens to inform and focus research towards integrated theories of the evolution of market structure and network relationships.
Abstract.
DOI.
Robinson M, Parry S, Jones R, Stern PP (2013). Shock advertising: cultural differences and similarities. Journal of Consumer Behaviour: an international research review, 12(2), 112-121.
2012
McCabe J, Dacko S, Stern PP (2012). Before and after: using the Dirichlet to analyze the sales impact of a sustained increase in promotional activity in an organizational market.
Journal of Advertising Research,
52(2), 214-224.
DOI.
Stern PP, Sharp B, Wright M, Dawes J, Driesener C, Stocchi L, Meyer-Waarden L (2012). It's a Dirichlet world: modelling individuals' loyalties reveals how brands compete, grow, and decline.
Journal of Advertising Research,
52(2), 203-213.
DOI.
2008
Stern P, Gonzalez J, Sismeiro C, Dutta S (2008). Can branded drugs benefit from generic entry? the role of detailing and price in switching to non-bioequivalent molecules.
,
5(4), 247-260.
Abstract:
Can branded drugs benefit from generic entry? the role of detailing and price in switching to non-bioequivalent molecules
Patent expiration represents a turning point not only for the brand losing patent protection, as bioequivalent generic versions of the drug quickly enter the market at reduced prices, but also for the non-bioequivalent drugs that retain patent protection in the same therapeutic category. In this paper, we study how physician characteristics and prescribing decisions impact competition among molecules of a therapeutic class once generic versions of one of these molecules enter the market. Our results show that the traditional focus on the single molecule losing patent protection is not sufficient to understand the impact of generics in the category and their cost-saving potential. We find that generic entry in the category under analysis not only leads to the expected decrease in the prescription of the branded molecule bioequivalent to the generics, but also unexpectedly benefits other non-bioequivalent branded drugs as detailing-sensitive physicians switched from the contested molecule to these other branded alternatives. However, a group of price-sensitive physicians did increase their use of the new generics to the detriment of all branded alternatives, allowing for additional savings in health care costs. The overall market result is a slight decrease in the prescriptions of the now much cheaper molecule. This paradox was identified previously in several pharmaceutical categories [Caves, R.E. Whinston, M.D. & Hurwitz, M.A. (1992), “Patent expiration, entry and competition in the US pharmaceutical industry: an exploratory analysis”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Microeconomics, vol. 1991, 1–48.], but lacked a systematic understanding and explanation. We show that the understanding of such market paradoxes requires marketers and policy makers to (1) determine the size of physician segments sensitive to marketing activity and prices, and (2) assess the marketing activity of all pharmaceutical firms, whether bioequivalent or not. We discuss the managerial and policy implications of our results.
Abstract.
DOI.
Gonzalez J, Sismeiro C, Dutta S, Stern P (2008). Can branded drugs benefit from generic entry? the role of detailing and price in switching to non-bioequivalent molecules.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN MARKETING,
25(4), 247-260.
Author URL.
DOI.
Saunders J, Stern P, Wensley R, Forrester R (2008). In Search of the Lemmus Lemmus: an Investigation into Convergent Competition.
British Journal of Management,
11(s1), S81-S95.
DOI.
Janakiraman R, Dutta S, Sismeiro C, Stern P (2008). Physicians' Persistence and its Implications for Their Response to Promotion of Prescription Drugs.
Management Science,
54(6), 1080-1093.
Abstract:
Physicians' Persistence and its Implications for Their Response to Promotion of Prescription Drugs
Motivated by the medical literature findings that physicians are inertial, we seek to understand (1) whether physicians exhibit structural persistence in drug choice (structural persistence occurs when the drug chosen for a patient depends structurally on the drug previously prescribed by the physician to other patients) and (2) whether persistence, if present, is a physician-specific characteristic or a physician state that can change over time. We further explore the role of promotional tools on persistence and drug choice, and we investigate whether physicians who exhibit persistence respond differently to three forms of sales promotion: one-to-one meetings (detailing), out-of-office meetings, and symposium meetings. Our results show significant levels of physician persistence in drug choice. We find that persistence is mostly a cross-sectional physician feature. Nonpersistent physicians appear to be responsive to detailing and symposium meetings, whereas persistent physicians seem to be responsive only to symposium meetings. Out-of-office meetings, such as golf or lunch, have no effect on physicians' drug choice. We also find that (1) older physicians and those who work in smaller practices are more likely to be persistent and (2) physicians who are more willing to receive sales force representatives have a lower likelihood of being persistent. Finally, we discuss implications for public policy from our rich set of results.
Abstract.
DOI.
McCabe J, Stern P (2008). Stochastic modelling and industrial networks—complementary views of organisational buyer behavior.
Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science,
37(2), 204-214.
DOI.
2007
Angwin D, Stern PP, Bradley S (2007). Strategic Practice During a Hostile Takeover Process:. The Bid for Blue Circle PLC. Journal of Strategic Management Education, 3
2006
Doyle P, Stern P (2006).
Marketing Management and Strategy., Pearson Education.
Abstract:
Marketing Management and Strategy
Abstract.
2005
Stern PP (2005). Commentary of Identifying 'Dr Innovator' in the primary care sector in the UK. International Journal of Medical Marketing, 5(1), 85-87.
2004
Stern P, Hammond K (2004). The Relationship Between Customer Loyalty and Purchase Incidence.
Marketing Letters,
15(1), 5-19.
DOI.
Angwin D, Stern PP, Bradley S (2004). The target CEO in a hostile takeover: can the Condemned Agent be Redeemed?. Long Range Planning, 37(3), 239-257.
2002
Stern P (2002). How health managers see prescribing.
Marketing Intelligence & Planning,
20(2), 104-112.
Abstract:
How health managers see prescribing
An understanding of the patterns of GP prescribing is important to those who play a role in the management of healthcare budgets. This paper analyses the contrasts and overlaps between the perceptions of healthcare managers and actual prescribing behaviour. While there are aspects of prescribing behaviour which are well understood, there are a number of areas where perceptions differ markedly from the patterns found in practice. The managerial implications of these differences are discussed.
Abstract.
DOI.
Dibb S, Stern P, Wensley R (2002). Marketing knowledge and the value of segmentation.
Marketing Intelligence & Planning,
20(2), 113-119.
Abstract:
Marketing knowledge and the value of segmentation
This paper reports findings from a study into how marketing academics and MBA students view segmentation. The research indicates that both respondent groups view segmentation as being more valuable in helping to understand customers than improving business performance. For MBA students there appears to be no relationship between their reported marketing knowledge and the value attributed to using market segmentation. The findings for academics suggest inconsistencies in how they interpret the value of segmentation and appraise the usefulness of analytical and evaluation approaches.
Abstract.
DOI.
2000
Stern PP (2000). Scrip's Guide to Successful Pharmaceutical Marketing. International Journal of Medical Marketing, 1(1), 88-89.
Stern PP (2000). The Industry Perspective on G.P Prescribing - How Good is it?. International Journal of Medical Marketing, 1(1), 20-32.
1997
Stern P, Hogg A (1997). Branded pharmaceuticals — inevitable decline or opportunities for growth?.
Journal of Brand Management,
4(5), 343-353.
DOI.
1995
Dibb S, Stern P (1995). Questioning the reliability of market segmentation techniques.
Omega,
23(6), 625-636.
DOI.
1994
Stern P (1994). Prescriptions for branded and generic pharmaceuticals.
Journal of Brand Management,
2(3), 177-183.
DOI.